Will 2026 be the winter of cryptocurrency?

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Are We Heading Into a Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Winter? Original Link: By 2025, favorable regulatory outcomes have helped propel the cryptocurrency market into a vigorous upward trend — but that wave has lost momentum since then. Now, many traders are asking themselves: is this it? Will we return to another Bitcoin bear market?

Although financial analysts have slightly different views on the outlook for next year, most agree that the answer to this pressing question is a loud “no.”

“We don’t see the horizon of a crypto winter at all,” said Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, when discussing the company’s outlook for 2026.

Pandl predicts that Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high again in the first half of this year. The token reached a recent high of $126,000 in early October but has since fallen sharply.

Greg Magadini, Head of Derivatives at Amberdata, agrees that 2026 will not be a crypto bear market — but his outlook for the year is somewhat pessimistic. He expects 2026 to be a year of “mixed volatility” for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with sharp swings in two directions.

“I think 2026 will start off pretty scary for crypto holders, and then end up being great for them,” Magadini said.

The analyst predicts that Bitcoin could fall below $67,000 in the first few months of this year, then eventually rebound to a new all-time high, possibly between $150,000 and $200,000.

Factors Driving the Market

The differing views among analysts boil down to their perspectives on what is driving the current upward trend in cryptocurrencies. For example, Magadini believes that crypto prices are now closely tied to macroeconomic sentiment, which he expects to weaken during the first third of 2026 due to tightening credit, then recover after central banks respond.

“All the crypto-specific stuff has already been priced in and has been as good as it can be,” Magadini said.

Zach Pandl of Grayscale disagrees. He argues that the resilience of the crypto bull market will be determined by two internal industry trends: demand for alternative stores of value and new regulatory measures accelerating the integration of cryptocurrencies with the traditional economy.

It is this view that leads Pandl to predict that Bitcoin — as a unique asset for storing alternative value — will be in a good position in 2026. But altcoins, and to a lesser extent Ethereum, will largely depend on the regulatory narrative, he said — and next year, that will hinge on whether the U.S. legislation on the crypto market framework is approved.

If the bill is not approved — as we discussed in the first installment of this series — then altcoins, and possibly Ethereum, may face a tougher year than Bitcoin.