2025: The year Mexico claims its place in the global financial markets

In 2025, the Mexican Stock Exchange (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores) is shaping up to be one of the most unexpected success stories of the year. While global investors remain cautious amid US political uncertainty, the Mexican stock market has gained 21.7% over the past 12 months, outperforming major North American indices. This rally has brought the spotlight to companies listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange, particularly those leading the consumer, telecommunications, and mining sectors.

The Mexican Stock Exchange: A compact but resilient market

The Mexican Stock Exchange was established as an institution in 1978, resulting from the merger of three regional exchanges. Today, it is the second-largest in Latin America and the fifth in the Americas. Unlike more diversified markets, Mexico operates with 145 listed companies (140 of Mexican capital), a relatively concentrated portfolio that reflects the country’s economic structure.

The S&P/BMV IPC, the main index representing market performance, is composed of 35 stocks weighted by market capitalization. This index is reviewed twice a year (March and September) and calculated in real time. Its current metrics reveal an expanding market: an annualized return of 29% over one year, 15% over five years, and 6.44% over ten years.

The index structure reflects the Mexican economy: basic consumer products account for 30.9% of sector weight, materials 26.2%, and industrials 12.3%. The average market capitalization is around 221.939 billion MXN, with ranges from 17.882 billion to 1,279.282 billion in the most extreme cases.

The major players: Who dominates the Mexican stock market

The ten companies with the largest market capitalization on the Mexican Stock Exchange account for approximately 80% of the total market value. This concentration is no accident: it reflects how Mexican capital is grouped into large multisector conglomerates.

Leading the list is Grupo México (GMEXICO B) with 1.27 trillion MXN in market cap. This conglomerate operates in mining, transportation, and infrastructure, positioning as the third-largest copper producer in the world. In Q3 2025, its revenue grew 11% to $4.59 billion, with net profit soaring over 50% to $1.29 billion. Analysts project some correction, with a target price of 149.42 MXN compared to the current 158.68-162.51 MXN.

Walmart de México (WALMEX) ranks second with 1.10 trillion MXN. As a retail leader, it manages hypermarkets and discount clubs across Mexico and Central America. Its second-quarter sales reached 246,253.8 million pesos (growth compared to 227,415.1 from the previous year), though net profit slightly declined to 11,226.9 million pesos. Barron’s maintains a “overweight” recommendation, with a PER ratio of 21.86 and a dividend yield of 3.83%.

Grupo Financiero Banorte (GF NORTE) totals 536.93 billion MXN in market cap. As the second-largest bank in Mexico and Latin America, it serves 22 million clients through over 1,000 branches. Its net income for Q3 was 13.008 billion pesos (down 9% year-over-year), but the analyst consensus maintains an “overweight” recommendation. With a PER ratio of 9.02, it is one of the most attractively valued.

Fomento Económico Mexicano (FEMSA) (FEMSA UBD) totals 583.28 billion MXN, operating as the largest Coca-Cola bottler worldwide. Its presence extends to 17 countries in Europe and Latin America. In Q3, revenues grew 9.1% to 214.638 billion pesos, though net profit fell 36.8% to 5.838 billion pesos due to currency pressures. It offers a high dividend yield (7.4%) despite a PER ratio of 38.85.

América Móvil (AMX B) completes the circle of leaders with 70.81 billion USD. This telecommunications multinational operates in 23 countries, serving over 323 million users. In Q3, it recorded revenues of 232.920 billion Mexican pesos (growth of 4.2% year-over-year) and net profit of 22.700 billion. The analyst consensus maintains a “Buy” recommendation with a target price of 21,323 MXN for the next 12 months.

These five companies listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange account for 44.2% of the total market capitalization and 55.8% of the S&P/BMV IPC index value, confirming that the Mexican market is highly concentrated among large-scale players.

The macroeconomic context supporting growth

The performance in 2025 cannot be separated from the macroeconomic environment. Inflation has fallen to 3.5% annually, allowing the Bank of Mexico to begin gradual interest rate cuts. While there is caution regarding core inflation, financial conditions are more stable than in previous years.

The Mexican peso has shown surprising resilience. Despite trade tensions caused by Donald Trump’s re-election in the United States and 25% tariffs on Mexican products, the currency moved within narrow ranges without abrupt depreciation. This strength has reduced pressure on operational costs for large corporations.

Investment flows related to nearshoring continue to enter the country, supporting both the real economy and the capital markets. This factor, combined with strong domestic consumption, has allowed the Mexican Stock Exchange to maintain an upward momentum even during months of high global volatility.

A portfolio strategy in times of reconfiguration

For investors historically concentrated in US assets, 2025 presents a scenario of rethinking. The S&P/BMV IPC at levels of 63,000-64,000 points suggests that Mexican stock market companies have consolidated gains in a context many expected to be negative.

A balanced portfolio could combine: selective exposure to large Mexican caps (Grupo México, Walmart de México, FEMSA), some smaller-cap stocks with potential within the index structure, Mexican local bonds to capture yield, and selectively US assets for geographic diversification.

This mix allows capturing yield differentials, mitigating currency and geopolitical risks, and leveraging the relative strength of the Mexican market in a year of significant global transformations. The challenge lies in identifying among the listed companies those with resilient business models amid sustained trade volatility.