$BTC The Spring Festival Effect is coming again, with retail investors in the crypto circle cashing out and leaving. Should we follow the trend or buy the dip in this round of market? Hello everyone, I am Awen (UTC+8). Currently, BTC spot is about 88,000 USD; BTH is a niche coin with extremely poor liquidity. The following strategy mainly focuses on BTC, with BTH only for very short-term reference. As liquidity is low and the risk of price spikes is high at the end of the year, please keep positions light and strictly control stop-loss. Cryptocurrency trading is prohibited in China. The analysis below is purely technical and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Core Judgment and Range for BTC

• Price Forecast: Mainly narrow fluctuations between 86,000-89,000 USD, with a breakout requiring volume confirmation; no major news is expected to break the range.

• Key Support/Resistance: 87,500 USD (4-hour EMA/Recent sideways middle line).

• Critical Support Levels: 87,000-87,300, 86,000-86,500, 85,769 (100-week EMA).

• Critical Resistance Levels: 88,800-88,900, 90,000-90,200, 91,941 (Bollinger Band upper band).

2. BTC Long and Short Strategies (with detailed levels)

• Long Position Strategy (Buy on Dip)

◦ Entry 1: 87,000-87,300 USD; Stop Loss: 86,400 USD; Take Profit 1: 88,800 USD (reduce position by 50%), Take Profit 2: 90,000 USD (close all); Position size ≤20%, risk-reward ratio approximately 1:3.

◦ Entry 2: 86,000-86,500 USD; Stop Loss: 85,600 USD; Take Profit 1: 88,000 USD, Take Profit 2: 90,000 USD; Position size ≤15%, risk-reward ratio approximately 1:4.

◦ Risk Control: Exit immediately if stop loss is hit; do not hold through losses. When profit reaches 1.5 times the stop loss, use a trailing stop to protect gains and lock in 10% profit.

• Short Position Strategy (Sell on Rebound)

◦ Entry 1: 88,800-88,900 USD; Stop Loss: 89,500 USD; Take Profit 1: 87,300 USD (reduce position by 50%), Take Profit 2: 86,500 USD (close all); Position size ≤15%, risk-reward ratio approximately 1:3.

◦ Entry 2: 90,000-90,200 USD; Stop Loss: 90,800 USD; Take Profit 1: 88,000 USD, Take Profit 2: 87,000 USD; Position size ≤10%, risk-reward ratio approximately 1:4.

◦ Risk Control: If price breaks above 91,000 USD, close all short positions at a loss; take profits in batches and do not chase short positions.