Next week’s decisive battle: can three key data releases rewrite the fate of the crypto market in 2026?

The difficult challenges we must face are coming. Over the next seven days, three heavyweight economic reports will be released in sequence, each of which could be the straw that breaks or saves the market. Traders, buckle up.

**Tuesday: Federal Reserve Minutes Release Day**

The market will analyze this official document word by word, seeking the Fed’s true stance on the interest rate path in 2026. If any "hawkish" remarks appear, the long-held expectations of easing could collapse in an instant. This is not alarmist talk, but a pattern that has been validated multiple times in the past.

**Wednesday: Initial Jobless Claims Data**

What the Fed truly cares about is not how impressive GDP looks, but how resilient the employment market is. If the data again proves that the US labor market remains rock-solid, the Fed will have more confidence to maintain high interest rates — which, for risk assets seeking a loose environment, is akin to a heavy punch.

**Friday: Manufacturing PMI**

This is the thermometer of economic health. If the data continues to confirm that the economy is in an expansion phase, it means the story of "US economy unafraid of high interest rates" is still ongoing, and the date for rate cuts will be pushed further into the future.

**What will happen to the crypto market?**

On the surface, all are bearish signals. But looking at it from another angle — it is precisely the resilience of these data that reveals how strained the traditional financial system really is. When official data increasingly shows that the economy is barely holding up under high rates, the narrative of Bitcoin as an independent store of value becomes even more valuable.

In the short term, any "hawkish" information will trigger volatility. But in the long run, this kind of stress testing is precisely proving that relying solely on interest rate policies can no longer fully control the market. Assets that do not depend entirely on traditional financial policies are the real direction worth paying attention to.

**What is your judgment?**

A. Short-term pressure, long-term opportunity for strategic positioning
B. Data remains strong, thoroughly reversing expectations of easing
C. The crypto market has become independent, macro influences are weakening

See the comments for the answer.