Based on the market situation on December 28th, Ethereum's current trend has deviated from previous expectations. The strategy point at 2800 as a safeguard for a reversal has gradually lost its appeal. Let's review the process: after falling from the convergence zone, a weak rebound appeared at the second buy point, but it still directly dropped near the third buy point. This indicates that the bearish momentum is almost exhausted.

The key observation point is around 3400. The previous attempt to break through the 3400 resistance level was ultimately pushed back. Since it cannot go higher, the likely path is to continue the oversold, shrinking volume trend, with the target around the 2050 zone plus or minus 200 points for a shakeout. During this process, close attention should be paid to the appearance of the fourth buy point—once a strong breakout structure forms and surpasses the daily 20-day or 40-day moving average, it may trigger a weekly-level reversal.

From a rebound perspective: after breaking the previous high of 3650, the subsequent resistance testing area is expected to focus on the 3800 to 4250 range. Although this path still requires some time to confirm, the logical framework is clear.