Having been in the crypto space for eight years, starting with just a few tens of thousands of yuan, I have experienced countless cycles of pitfalls, corrections, and re-pits. Now, I can somewhat rely on trading to sustain myself steadily. Over these years, I have personally tested and rejected almost every popular idea, technical indicator, and trading model circulating in the market.



If you want to treat trading as a long-term path or even as your main source of income in the future, one thing is especially crucial—look more, listen more, verify more. Never rush to draw conclusions. Many wasted detours could have been avoided.

One of the most common questions from beginners is: How can I tell if a coin's breakout is genuine or fake? My approach is to analyze from four dimensions—volume, price, time, and position.

**Look at Volume**
The market rarely moves silently before a breakout. A significant increase in volume after a long sideways trend is worth paying attention to, but there's no need to rush into the market. Truly interesting opportunities usually appear at the moment when the pullback and shakeout are over, and funds are re-entering.

**Look at Price**
During the process, prices can fluctuate wildly, but the closing price is always the most honest indicator. If the price can close steadily above a key resistance level, it shows that the funds have a clear attitude. The difference between a real and a false breakout often manifests at this point.

**Look at Time**
A good breakout isn't rushed. Ideally, there should be a sufficiently long period of low-volume consolidation beforehand. The higher the concentration of chips, the stronger the subsequent market extension. If time is insufficient, the subsequent space usually won't extend far.

**Look at Position**
First, clearly mark the resistance level—this could be a previous high, the neckline of a pattern, or just an round number. Once the position is clear, the target space after the breakout becomes obvious.

These four points form the basic framework for my judgment of sideways breakouts. It's not complicated, but it requires repeated validation in actual market conditions to truly master.

Later, I will gradually share some of the trading notes accumulated over the years. These are not secret weapons but experiences repeatedly tested in real markets. If they can help you avoid some detours, then the nights I've spent in the past will have some return. Take time to review more often; the market is always there, but trading cognition needs to be built step by step.
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BasementAlchemistvip
· 12h ago
The closing price is the most honest, I have to remember this. I've learned this lesson after falling into too many pits. --- Eight years and still talking about the basic framework, which shows these things are indeed sufficient, unlike some people who keep hyping up black technology. --- The analysis of volume and price at specific levels is correct, but most people still can't get it right. Ultimately, it's because they don't review enough. --- "Watch more, listen more, verify more" is easy to say, but few actually stick to it. --- The key is mindset. No matter how good the framework is, it can't withstand human greed. --- I want to ask this gentleman, are you still using the logic from eight years ago? The crypto world changes so fast. --- Standing firm at the pressure level after close is indeed a signal, but I always miss that moment and get in early haha. --- I often overlook the consolidation phase with decreasing volume, thinking that a breakout volume means I should enter. Looks like I need to change my approach.
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WhaleWatchervip
· 12h ago
It takes eight years to understand this point, many people still haven't figured it out after a year and are still messing around blindly. The saying "Closing price is always honest" I absolutely agree with. Where are the promised trading notes? I'm already prepared to lose money and learn from it. The framework of volume, price, time, and position—it's simple to say, but actually applying it requires paying a lot of tuition fees. It seems very clear-headed, but when it comes to critical moments, it's still easy to get carried away. I've tried these four dimensions; they are clear during backtesting but become chaotic in live trading. This should have been explained to beginners long ago—stop using so many flashy indicators. Eight years of hard work just wasted like that, how unfortunate that is.
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MEVHuntervip
· 12h ago
I agree with the statement that closing prices are honest, but to be honest, the more honest insights come from the true intentions of the big players in the mempool... The volume-price-time frame is good, but it's easy to be washed out by traps.
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RugpullTherapistvip
· 12h ago
Eight years, indeed a long period. But to be honest, I have been using this framework of volume, price, time, and position for three years. Later, I found that solely looking at these four dimensions still makes it easy to get caught in a trap. The key is to combine on-chain data; otherwise, you're just playing a game against the market manipulators, always a step behind.
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SilentAlphavip
· 12h ago
Eight years, this journey has been truly tough. I must remember the saying that the closing price is the most honest. What’s truly worth learning is patience in waiting. It’s not about jumping in immediately when volume increases; you need to wait until the shakeout ends before taking action. The framework of volume-price-time levels sounds simple, but in real trading, you realize how difficult it really is. To put it plainly, you still need to review more often. There are no shortcuts; only what you’ve verified yourself can be trusted. These experience posts are much more reliable than those boastful traders.
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