Can Bitcoin stabilize between 180,000 and 240,000 in Q1? There's a deeper logic behind this question.

You’ll understand instantly when comparing the growth rates of traditional assets. Gold took half a year to rise 50%, silver a month for 50%, platinum a week for 50%, palladium three days for 50%, and even tin by the roadside can surge 50% in a day. So what about cryptocurrencies? This is an incremental market, and everyone has an answer in their heart.

How did the textbook cases of the first two bull markets unfold? The performance of coins like MASK, DYDX, YGG, ICP says it all. Take MASK as an example: it opened at 0.5U and soared to 75U within a few hours that night. This is not a story of "slow growth," but a script of "all in one day."

How many people in the crypto world haven't gone crazy? The only difference is early madness versus late madness. Early mad people accumulate chips at the bottom, late mad people buy at the top. Those who are now losing more than ten times, the core issue is actually very simple: being sober at the wrong time, and crazy at the wrong time. Calm down early at the top, how could you lose like this? But human nature always works against it—that's the cruel truth.

During Ethereum's rise from a few thousand to 10,000, retail investors generally looked at 20,000. What are 90% of KOLs doing now? Recommissions, collecting tuition fees, selling emotions, selling certainty. Their underlying logic is just one sentence: they don't need you to survive long-term, only to trade frequently. So they must shout fast, shout fierce, shout certainty, create FOMO, and keep you moving.

The full network liquidation on October 11 was not an accident; disasters always strike those who are unprepared. Someone warned as early as July not to use leverage. The first wave of retail liquidation was direct zeroing, the second wave was only after the main rally. Opportunities are only for those who are prepared.

The market layering logic is very clear: Bitcoin determines whether you survive, Ethereum determines whether you are stable, and only altcoins can truly turn things around. Two years ago, when the whole network was bearish on Bitcoin, it was a bottoming process; at the end of June, when the whole network was calling Ethereum trash, it was still bottoming. Now, altcoins are being mocked and denied by the whole network, but they are doing the same thing.

Other KOLs' routines are always opposite: at the bottom, they let you cut; at the halfway point, they let you rush; the only goal is—making you unable to survive, unsteady, and unable to turn things around.

What has a three-year cycle proven? Others always say, "The market didn't die, I died." Those who follow the trend not only caught the big waves of Bitcoin and Ethereum but also became the main force that cannot be washed out no matter how the market manipulates. The main force fears not those star players, but the longevity of persistent players. This is what institutions do, and what the true market winners do.