The black swan suddenly flew in from Asia. While everyone was still watching the Fed's every move, the Bank of Japan took the lead—announcing a 25 basis point rate hike, pushing interest rates directly up to 0.75%, the highest in nearly 30 years.

It seems like a small move, but the ripple effects behind it can shake the entire global financial market. Why? Because over the past 20 years, the yen has almost become the cheapest financing tool worldwide. Over $1.2 trillion in carry trade funds have been borrowed in yen and then invested in various global assets. This arbitrage has supported a large part of global liquidity.

Now that Japan has raised interest rates, the game has changed. These yen-denominated funds are starting to flow back, and the cheap global liquidity is drying up. Logically, this should cause a significant impact on the markets. But the actual reaction has been somewhat surprising—US stocks closed higher, Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed gains and losses, and the A-shares remained steady around 3,900 points. The crypto market is also still consolidating, with no major crash in sight.

Why haven't the A-shares and crypto markets been scared off by Japan's rate hike? The reasons are quite pragmatic. First, foreign capital's share in A-shares is relatively low, and domestic capital flows determine the market direction. Second, the appreciation of the yen is actually beneficial for Chinese companies—automotive parts, photovoltaics, and other exports will become more competitive. Third, key sectors like semiconductors will accelerate domestic substitution as a result.

But claiming there are no risks at all would be self-deception. The market has been in a prolonged sideways consolidation, unable to break through key support levels. Over time, this hesitation will become increasingly dangerous. Experience tells us that even if the market eventually breaks upward, a retracement to find a bottom is inevitable beforehand.

From a technical perspective, the current pattern is a typical high-level accumulation phase. Tightening liquidity will intensify this uncertainty. The crypto market is especially sensitive to changes in global liquidity. The reallocation of funds triggered by Japan's rate hike could produce noticeable market movements in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies are still waiting for directional breakout signals. Changes in the macro environment, the chain reaction of yen appreciation, and the uncertainty of global central bank policies are all key variables influencing the market. Paying attention to the yen's movements might provide more insight into the true direction of the crypto market than simply watching the Fed.