#比特币资产配置 Seeing this discussion about quantum cracking, the first thought that flashed through my mind was the Mt.Gox incident in 2011. Back then, it was the same scenario—sudden black swan, the entire community plunged into panic, with some shouting that Bitcoin was doomed. But look, what did the true holders do at that time? They bought the dip.

The hypothesis about Satoshi's 1 million BTC is also similar. Josh Otten's depiction of a $3 crash scenario is indeed shocking, but a rational analysis makes it clear that this is precisely a test of faith. I strongly agree with Willy Woo's view—quantum risk is an objective reality, but it’s not something that will happen tomorrow. About 4 million BTC stored in P2PK addresses, plus Satoshi's holdings, do pose a theoretical risk, but this also gives us a time window to respond.

The key is that the logic of asset allocation has never changed: the real risk is not whether extreme scenarios will occur, but whether you can stay firm amid volatility. I have experienced multiple cycles, each claiming Bitcoin was dead, and each giving rise to stories of panic buying that wealth was being accumulated. The network will survive, and the patience and judgment of holders will be tested over time. If quantum cracking truly happens, who will still be around then? Who will take over that 1 million BTC? The answer has long been written in history.