Dollar hegemony is loosening. The most direct signal is right in front of us: gold has broken through the $4,500 mark, with a gain of over 70% last year, while silver has soared to a high of $79, with its highest increase since the beginning of the year approaching 170%. The logic behind this is not complicated—central banks around the world are stockpiling gold at an unprecedented rate, with the dollar reserve ratio slipping to around 57%, sparking a global wave of "de-dollarization."

This is not just a simple change in asset allocation but a deep restructuring of the monetary order. Consensus among analysis institutions is that a multipolar era is being priced in by the market in advance. Goldman Sachs' research team has set a target price for gold at $4,900. If the Federal Reserve begins a rate cut cycle in 2026 and geopolitical conflicts intensify further, precious metals could see additional gains, with silver potentially rising another 35% or so.

Interestingly, Bitcoin has lagged somewhat in this rally. From its all-time high of $126,000, it has fallen back to around $90,000, with funds clearly shifting toward precious metals. This exposes a long-standing unresolved issue: is Bitcoin digital gold or a risk asset? The differing identities determine its performance in macro volatility.

However, some voices point out that as long as signs of improved macro liquidity emerge, Bitcoin still has room to restart its rally. The key is to watch how the four major variables unfold over the next few years: whether the Federal Reserve will continue easing policies, the direction of the dollar index, whether geopolitical risks will escalate or ease, and the capital preferences in the crypto market. The outcome of these variables in 2026 is already being revealed through market actions, and the prices are speaking the answer.