There is a seriously underestimated signal in the precious metals market.

Many people still say that the surge in silver prices is purely speculative, but there is solid supply-side logic behind it.

The key point is this: starting from January 1, 2026, a major commodity supplier will implement an export license system for silver. The policy requires that only companies with an annual production of over 80 tons and official certification can obtain export permits.

What does this mean? The global silver supply channels will be significantly narrowed. Mid-to-low-end producers will be shut out, market liquidity will drop sharply, and pricing power will concentrate in large enterprises. With demand remaining stable or even increasing, the supply side is being forcibly squeezed by policy—this is the real driving force behind this round of price increases.

So don’t just look at short-term volatility charts; understand how policy variables are reshaping the commodity cycle to grasp the subsequent trend.