#美联储利率决策 The Federal Reserve is starting to hesitate again. Looking at Goolsbee and Schmied’s attitudes this time, the core issue remains their lingering fear of inflation—businesses and consumers still see prices as the top concern, which is the most critical signal.

I’ve seen too many people get caught off guard by rate cut expectations. A year ago, everyone was also expecting rate cuts, but what happened? The rate cut cycle came later than expected and was more cautious than anticipated. Now it’s the same story—The Fed’s words sound nice—"waiting for more information" "prudent progress," but the real truth is they’re also unsure.

What does this mean on the chain? It’s a reminder not to be blinded by the "rate cut expectations" story. Every time such signals appear, they attract a wave of FOMO traders, with big players often using macro expectations as a smokescreen. Tariffs, AI, the labor market—these variables are still uncertain, and even the Fed itself hasn’t figured it out.

My straightforward advice: this is the easiest time to get caught. When everyone is discussing a possible "significant rate cut" next year, risks are often already piling up to a critical point. Stay vigilant, don’t chase the gains in risk assets—living longer is much more important than making quick money.