#比特币与黄金战争 Bitcoin and Ethereum Short-term Trend Analysis

Yesterday, the market was in a digestion phase overall. $BTC is currently stuck around 87,400, and in the next 24 hours, it is likely to fluctuate within the range of 86,000 to 89,000. The key support level is around 86,000-86,500; if it breaks below, 85,000 becomes the stop-loss line. Resistance above is at 89,000-90,000. Only a volume breakout above this range would signal a true rebound; otherwise, the rebound strength will be limited.

The situation for $ETH is similar, with the current price at 2,930, moving within 2,880 to 3,050. The 20-day moving average is near 3,000-3,050, which could either serve as a springboard for a rebound or become a convergence point for selling pressure. The support at the bottom remains around 2,880. Stablecoins like USDT and USDC are hovering around 1.0, with little fluctuation.

Market sentiment is currently in a panic state, with the fear and greed index at only 24, indicating that institutions are quite cautious at year-end. Liquidity is noticeably low, and trading activity is light. On the positive side, there are no new negative shocks, and the selling pressure from long-term holders is easing. On the negative side, technical indicators remain weak, and after options expiration, the market is still digesting. Coupled with ongoing regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainties, these factors are weighing on the market.

The probability of extreme market conditions is relatively low—there is less than a 20% chance of rising above 90,000 or falling below 86,000 unless some major news suddenly emerges.

In practical trading, the focus should be on observing the spot market. If the price retraces to 86,000-86,500, consider adding small positions in batches, but stop-loss must be set below 85,000. When rebounding to 89,000-90,000, take profits appropriately. For contract traders, remember to keep positions light, strictly set stop-losses, and never hold heavy positions overnight. Although the market volatility is not large, there are many traps.