2025-12-28 05:25:32

Ethereum's current downtrend is not easy. From $2000 to $1400, a 30% drop in half a month, many traders are considering stop-loss. But understanding historical patterns can help us find where the true bottom is.

I have compiled complete data from several Ethereum bear markets: bottomed at $82 in December 2018, at $88 in March 2020, and at $1080 in June 2022. On the surface, these bottoms seem different, but the underlying logic is very consistent.

Let's look at the decline patterns over time. In 2017, it surged to $1400, then in 2018, it fell to $82, a 94% decline. In 2019, it rose to $360, then in 2020, it dropped to $88, a 75% decline. In 2021, it peaked at $4891, then in 2022, it declined to $1080, a 78% drop. Historically, Ethereum's bear markets tend to fall within the 80%-85% range.

Using $2400 in 2023 as the high point of this cycle, and applying the historical average decline of 78%, the theoretical bottom should be around $528. But there's a key point to note — the current market environment is more complex than ever, and traditional percentage models may need recalibration.

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DefiPlaybook

· 19h ago

78% this figure does seem to follow a pattern, but $528... to be honest, I think that's a bit unrealistic. Based on the historical percentage model, the logic itself is sound. However, it's worth noting that the macroeconomic background has changed since this cycle began, and the traditional decline models might really need recalibration. The current market environment is indeed more complex, and relying solely on historical proportions for predictions could be disadvantageous.

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GasFeePhobia

· 19h ago

$528? Dream on. The current market environment doesn't follow the historical pattern at all. That's too naive.

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DaoTherapy

· 19h ago

$528? Sounds very scientific, but brother, can you trust it this time? Do historical patterns still work after the macro environment has changed?

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Blockblind

· 19h ago

528 is still too optimistic. The current economic environment is completely different from before.

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PretendingSerious

· 19h ago

$528? Brother, these numbers are a bit outrageous. It's already at 1400, and it can still fall that much? --- Historical patterns do have reference value, but we're not playing the same game now... --- An 80%-85% decline sounds scary, but it feels like there are too many variables in this cycle --- Data整理得不错，就是底部这事儿谁敢保证呢 --- Stop-loss people are now regretting it to the point of eating their guts, waiting for the right moment is the real winner --- $528 is still too pessimistic. I think it might be around $800-$1000 --- This kind of retrospective analysis is the easiest to mislead people; history will not repeat itself exactly --- Traditional models failing is no longer a new thing; Bitcoin has already found its own rhythm --- Seeing through historical patterns? Ha, market black swans don't follow rules

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ZkProofPudding

· 19h ago

528? Bro, your data looks good, really good, but the market never plays by the rules. Hmm... History may repeat itself, but not exactly the same. This time, it's truly different. An 80% decline seems quite solid as a pattern, but I'm worried the macro environment might turn around immediately. 528 is a bit optimistic; I feel I need to wait for a lower price before I dare to buy in. The data looks good, but execution is difficult. By the time it hits the bottom, it will have already rebounded. This cycle feels more bizarre than any before. Only those who can predict accurately are truly strong. 528? I think I’d only consider building a position below 1000. For now, I’ll stay on the sidelines. Stop-losses are just bad mentality; it all depends on who can hold out. Precise algorithms are accurate, but black swan events are unpredictable and unavoidable. Using historical patterns as a reference is fine, but treating them as gospel will only lead to losses.

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TokenomicsDetective

· 20h ago

If it's 528, then does that mean a further 70% drop? Brother, your data is really extreme. As for historical patterns, they are essentially a game of probabilities. When it comes to critical moments, no one can accurately hit the mark. --- An 80%-85% decline? That requires endurance; the psychological barrier is even harder to overcome than the technical one. --- You mentioned that the market environment is complex now. Can the old models still be used? It feels like every time, people say "this time is different." --- From 4891 to 1080 is already a 78% drop. How can it fall another 528... Wait, was the high in 2023 only 2400? I thought it was higher. --- This logic sounds quite reasonable, but honestly, everyone wants to buy the bottom but can't. Instead of guessing the bottom, watching the stop-loss levels is more critical. --- 528? Then we should be prepared for another hit. In a bear market, such projections are often overly optimistic. --- History doesn't necessarily repeat itself, especially now that leverage and derivatives markets are much more complex than before. Relying on simple formulas feels a bit dangerous.

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