2025-12-28 05:21:16

Looking at this set of data: Bitcoin's 10-year annualized return has reached 45%. Sounds impressive, but there's a problem—its maximum drawdown is close to 80%.

This number is a bit heartbreaking. What does an 80% drawdown mean? If you bought with 10,000 yuan, it would turn into just 2,000 yuan in a flash. Most people's psychological defenses collapse at this point.

Honestly, very few people can truly stick with something for ten years. It's not that everyone lacks determination; a bear market is like a war of attrition. The market is bleak, your principal is shrinking, and all around you are voices of pessimism. You might get trapped, forced to cut losses, or your mindset might explode, ultimately leading to a dismal exit.

Can steadfast dollar-cost averaging over ten years achieve impressive results? Theoretically, yes. But in reality, most people's stories end abruptly during the bear market phase. Psychological resilience, capital turnover pressure, and shaken confidence—these are all hurdles. Those who can endure from start to finish are not just looking at the return rate but also possess a patience that surpasses ordinary levels.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

7 Likes

Reward
7
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

DeFiGrayling

· 4h ago

Basically, I won't live to see that day. I know several guys who bought a bunch in 2017 and held onto it, then sold off in 2018.

View OriginalReply0

DataBartender

· 12h ago

Ten years at 45% annualized sounds impressive, but you can't withstand an 80% drawdown... Most people have already cut their losses and run. Sticking to it for ten years sounds easy, but an explosive mindset is the norm—that's reality. Dollar-cost averaging theory is perfect, but during a bear market, everyone becomes a leek; only a few make it to the end. Basically, it's a test of psychological resilience, not a math problem.

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeCrier

· 12h ago

A 45% annualized return over ten years sounds impressive, but an 80% drawdown can really discourage 99% of people... When ten thousand drops to two thousand, no one can think about long-termism anymore. Most people's stories end in a bear market, and I’m no exception haha. Those who truly stick to the end are, frankly, not because they are smart, but because they have so much money they don't care, or they are numb from having cut losses once before. Psychological resilience ≈ return rate, this is true.

View OriginalReply0

MEVHunterNoLoss

· 13h ago

Basically, it's a game of mental resilience. A 45% annual return sounds great, but who the hell can withstand an 80% plunge?

View OriginalReply0

SeeYouInFourYears

· 13h ago

45% annualized sounds great, but an 80% drawdown is the real killer. Ten thousand instantly drops to two thousand. I just want to ask, do you dare to watch?

View OriginalReply0

ForkThisDAO

· 13h ago

At the end of the day, it's all about mindset. A 45% annualized return sounds sexy, but who the hell can withstand an 80% cut? Ten thousand yuan turning into two thousand, unless it's idle money, otherwise it's basically a psychological breakdown. The bear market tests people the most. Dollar-cost averaging for ten years? Forget it, most people will exit in three months. The ones who truly make money are never the bandwagon followers, but those monsters who don't even look at the market. Can Bitcoin reach ten thousand dollars, or are we all just playing games with AI agents?

View OriginalReply0

PrivacyMaximalist

· 13h ago

45% annualized sounds great, but an 80% drawdown immediately brings people back to reality. Basically, it's a psychological game. We agreed on ten years, but as soon as the bear market hits, everyone immediately gives up. No one can endure it. DCA sounds easy, but when the market truly crashes and makes you doubt life, you'll realize what a test really is. That's why most people will never make big money. It's not a mechanism problem; it's purely a mindset issue. Try turning ten thousand into two thousand. See how many people can hold on without selling.

View OriginalReply0