#比特币与黄金战争 SOL December 28 Price Action Summary: The range of 122.5-125.5 USD has been repeatedly tugged back and forth, short-term weak, with no strong directional trend, just a high risk-reward swing trading game. Positions must be strictly controlled, capped at 30%, and be cautious over the weekend—liquidity is poor, making it easiest to get trapped by false breakouts and fake spikes.

**Key Price Levels (Based on 4-hour + Daily Charts, as of noon December 28)**

Looking down: 122.5 is a strong support (tested multiple times on the 4H), 121 is a psychological barrier + trading cluster, 120 is where stop-loss should be set, and below that, 118 is another line of defense. Looking up: The 124.8-125.5 range faces clear resistance (20-day moving average pressing here), 127 is a Fibonacci key retracement level, and the 130 round number is unlikely to be broken unless there’s significant volume.

**Technical Analysis Brief**

The 4-hour ADX is below 20, indicating no strong trend, with bears slightly favoring bulls(-DI > +DI). The daily chart is still under heavy pressure from the 20-day moving average, remaining in a high-level correction phase. The pattern is a bearish descending wedge, with the upper boundary around 124.8-125.5, making a downward breakout more probable. MACD’s positive histogram is shrinking, momentum weakening; RSI shows no particular signals; Bollinger Bands are tightening with the middle band starting to exert pressure. The most critical factor is volume—since liquidity is poor over the weekend, a true breakout requires volume confirmation plus at least two consecutive 4H candles confirming, don’t be fooled by false breakouts.

**Trading Strategy (With Risk Control)**

**Primarily short positions (better risk-reward):** When rebounding to 124.5-125.3, consider lightly shorting, with a stop-loss at 125.8 (the upper boundary of the 20-day moving average; if volume breaks through, exit). Take partial profits at 122.5, with a second target at 121; if it breaks below, look toward 120.

**Long positions should wait for stabilization:** Retrace to 122.5-123, wait for a 15-minute bullish close before entering long, with a small position, stop-loss at 122 (if volume breaks down, don’t hold), target 124.5; if it breaks through, look at 125.3; if volume confirms, then consider 127.

**Breakout trading:** If it stabilizes above 127 with volume, chase longs toward 130, with a stop at 126. If it drops below 122 with volume confirmation, chase shorts toward 120, with a stop at 122.8.

**Discipline for Execution (Must Follow)**

No single trade should exceed 10% of position size, total position cap at 30%, leverage should be either not used or kept at 1x low leverage. During the low-liquidity period from 10 PM to 4 AM, avoid opening new positions; set stop-losses on existing positions in advance. Breakouts must be confirmed with volume and two consecutive 4-hour candles; no chasing or holding through false signals—this is the bottom line.