2025-12-28 05:00:12

#比特币与黄金战争 Tonight, the Bank of Japan will speak, and the global capital markets will have to hold their breath. A report lies before us, presenting two completely different paths.

Honestly, the situation is much more complicated than imagined. Japan, a key variable in global liquidity, is experiencing a split:

On one side are signals of economic recession. Q3 GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 2.3%, struggling under external and internal pressures. On the other side is policy tug-of-war — the new government has announced a stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen to support the economy, but the central bank’s hawks are continuously pushing for rate hikes and are executing an annual ETF reduction of 620 billion yen, clearly pointing toward policy normalization.

For risk assets like $BTC $ETH, the key variable is where the cheap yen will flow.

If Japan, under economic pressure, steps on the brakes of tightening, global liquidity pressure will ease, allowing risk assets to breathe. Conversely, if hawks accelerate rate hikes, a wave of closing arbitrage trades may emerge, causing short-term shocks.

The biggest test now is mindset. During times of intense macro narrative swings, it’s better to hold core assets tightly rather than trade frequently, waiting for Japan’s policy direction to become truly clear before deciding how funds will flow. The bigger the wave, the steadier the helm must be.

BTC0,02%

ETH0,23%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

13 Likes

Reward
13
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

WhaleMinion

· 14h ago

The Bank of Japan's recent actions are truly frustrating. They are easing liquidity while shrinking the balance sheet—aren't they just hitting each other's hands with their left and right? --- The core of the issue is the arbitrage of cheap yen. Don't be fooled by GDP data. --- If hawkish policymakers really take control, the day carry trades blow up, none of us will have a good time. Hold onto core assets, everyone. --- Basically, it's a gamble on Japan's policy direction. If you guess wrong, the market will crash in the short term. It all depends on mindset. --- Liquidity is the most annoying thing. When Japan sneezes, the whole world catches a cold. --- The 21.3 trillion yen stimulus plan and the 620 billion yen ETF reduction are happening simultaneously. This policy is really flashy. --- Bitcoin is now just an equal sign—it's about how Japan's policy will unfold. The decision still depends on the central bank's attitude. --- When a big wave comes, it's better to stay steady. But honestly, in this kind of swinging rhythm, many people just can't hold on.

View OriginalReply0

SmartContractPhobia

· 14h ago

The Bank of Japan's play, to put it plainly, is still a gamble on whether hawks or doves will win. As liquidity loosens and tightens, those of us holding assets have to ride the roller coaster. --- The direction of the cheap yen is really crucial, but honestly, who knows? Anyway, I don't dare to trade frequently. --- Waiting for clear policies? Bro, you might be waiting until the end of time. It's better to hold core assets and sleep soundly. --- Hawks want to raise interest rates, just in time for arbitrage trades to close. This wave of volatility will probably be intense. --- It feels like Japan's economy is beyond help now, and stimulus plans can't suppress recession signals. --- Honestly, in such a complex macro environment, frequent trading is just suicide. --- Changes in yen liquidity directly affect my wallet, I understand this logic. --- The internal rift within the central bank, yet they still want to stabilize the market—this is a joke in itself. --- Keeping the ship steady amid raging waves sounds reasonable, but how many can truly stick to it? --- GDP has already shown negative growth, yet they still want to hike rates. That takes a lot of courage.

View OriginalReply0

DataBartender

· 14h ago

Japan's chess game, with hawks and doves fighting it out, we can only wait and see who wins... Once liquidity shifts, BTC might take a hit. The advice to hold core assets is good; anyway, we can't see through what the central bank really wants to do right now. The arbitrage benefits during the yen depreciation period are probably gone? With such chaos in macroeconomics, instead of staring at the screen every day, it's better to go for a walk. You'll know the answer when you come back. Internal conflicts within the central bank, our wallets suffer—it's been around since ancient times. Liquidity easing sounds good, but I'm worried it might not ease and could lead to an unexpected rate hike... then we'll really have to cut losses. Keep a steady hand at the helm, but the premise is not to let the waves capsize the boat. The day Japan's policies become clear? Who knows when that will be; these officials are dragging their feet. The phrase "short-term shocks are inevitable"... I wonder if it will be more than just short-term. The flow of cheap yen, to put it simply, depends on who throws money into risk assets. We haven't forgotten the lessons of August.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-3824aa38

· 14h ago

The Bank of Japan's move feels like playing Russian roulette—trying to save the economy while normalizing, who the hell can guess what's next? --- The key is cheap yen flows—basically waiting to see who wins between hawks and doves. Will BTC buy into this? --- Frequent trading? I advise you not to. At this pace, you really need to hold core assets and wait until policy directions become clear. --- A 2.3% GDP contraction paired with 21 trillion yen in stimulus—Japan can really stir things up with this contradiction. --- Closing out arbitrage trades will cause short-term shocks, but don't be too pessimistic. History shows that to ride big waves, you need a steady helm. --- Honestly, right now it all depends on who in Japan's decision-making circle makes the first concession—this is more important than any K-line chart. --- The key variable in global liquidity turns out to be Japan. Just thinking about it feels a bit surreal.

View OriginalReply0

CascadingDipBuyer

· 14h ago

The Bank of Japan's move is really a masterstroke; if they hike rates hawkishly, the carry trade will blow up in minutes. It'll then come down to who can scoop the bottom most aggressively.

View OriginalReply0

fomo_fighter

· 14h ago

The Bank of Japan's move is truly a tug-of-war. Where the cheap yen flows depends entirely on how these decision-makers choose to fight. Wait a minute, hawkish rate hikes, arbitrage unwinding—can we stay stable? Feeling a bit anxious. Rather than watching the market every day, it's better to hold tight and wait for signals like BTC. Anyway, it's all a macro gamble.

View OriginalReply0