Weekend market liquidity continues to shrink, and the turnover rate is also declining. BTC has approached $90,000 several times but has always been suppressed. Market sentiment is clearly lacking.

Next week, there are no major economic data releases to disrupt the market, with the only noteworthy event being the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's predictive model, market consensus points to the Fed cutting interest rates twice in 2026, in March and July, after which the benchmark rate will stabilize around 3%. The latest report from Royal Bank of Canada Asset Management confirms this judgment—3% precisely corresponds to the current neutral interest rate level in the US.

In other words, by the end of 2026, the Fed's long-term tightening cycle will be completely over.

But there is a deeper logic here—looking at rate cuts alone is not enough.

The real question is, what ammunition remains in the Fed's toolbox? First, room to cut rates. 3% is not the lower limit; if the economy needs stimulation, further rate cuts are always an option. Second, new quantitative easing measures. The Fed has launched the "Reserve Management Plan," which essentially injects liquidity into the financial system in a targeted manner, with the latest monthly scale reaching $40 billion.

So it’s clear that the Fed currently has ample monetary reserves and a composed stance. This situation provides substantial support to the US stock market. Calmness is actually the strongest deterrent—a central bank that is patient and unhurried can uphold market expectations of long-term easing.

Coupled with Fed Chair Powell’s repeated emphasis on the policy direction—currently, the primary task is to "stabilize employment," with the willingness to tolerate some inflation increase if necessary. This means that even if the unemployment rate rises, it will not be enough to shake the overall pace of rate cuts. The market thus gains a more stable expectation anchor.