Looking at this wave of market activity, many people have already started to indulge, but I believe that such a sharp increase actually signals a warning sign.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has fallen from a high of 126,200 to 80,000, a correction of nearly 40%. Although a rebound to 100,000 seems normal, don’t forget a key fact — Bitcoin has been rising for three consecutive years. According to the four-year halving cycle, such sustained growth itself is quite abnormal.

The macro environment actually gives us some clues. The Federal Reserve has already started cutting interest rates (the latest by 25 basis points), and next year, quantitative tightening will end, followed by a cycle of monetary easing. At first glance, this is beneficial for asset prices; US stocks will continue to rise, and gold could surge from 4,500 to 6,000 USD per ounce. But this is precisely the trap repeatedly validated by historical cycles — the prosperity in the early stages of easing is often the last frenzy before a major correction.

My logic is simple: a large-scale bear market cycle is unimaginable; once it begins, it will take about a year to fully unfold. If Bitcoin cannot break through the resistance level of 126,200 for a long time, then the overall framework of the four-year halving cycle will not change. Following this rhythm, October 2026 is very likely to be the bottom.

Now is the time to test patience. Buy at the bottom when no one is paying attention, and sell at the top when everyone is clamoring — this is not just a slogan, but the key to victory. By the end of next year, it will be the real golden period for deployment. At that time, Bitcoin is very likely to reach the 30,000-60,000 USD range.