Recently, the backend has been asking when Ethereum will truly hit its bottom and whether it is safe to buy the dip. These questions are coming up very frequently. Honestly, every time I see such questions, I feel a bit powerless—too many people treat bottom prediction as a gamble, some go all-in based on intuition, and others are completely driven by market sentiment. The final result is often heavy losses.

When I first entered the space, I fell into this trap. I tried to precisely buy the bottom of Ethereum three times, and all three times I got caught. An initial capital of 100,000 yuan shrank to just over 20,000. The days during that period were extremely tough, needless to say. But it was precisely these painful lessons that helped me develop a relatively reliable methodology. Today, I want to share the core logic behind these three bottom-detection methods, hoping to help everyone avoid most of the pitfalls of buying the dip.

First, we need to correct a common misconception: relying on a single indicator can never definitively determine the true bottom. All effective methods must be a multi-indicator, combined strategy.

**The first key indicator is the divergence phenomenon between the panic index and trading volume.** Many people see the panic index drop below 20 and rush in eagerly, but this is just a surface-level operation. The real bottom characteristic should be like this: the panic index remains below 20 for an extended period, while Ethereum’s trading volume shows a clear "low volume" state. Moreover, this low volume should persist for at least 3 to 5 days to be convincing.

What is meant by "low volume"? Simply put, the daily trading volume drops by more than 50% compared to the average over the past 30 days. My first lesson in buying the dip was a painful one—at that time, the panic index hit 18, and I thought the opportunity had arrived, so I jumped in. But in reality, the trading volume was still high, indicating a large amount of chips continuously leaving the market. As a result, I got caught with a 30% loss.

**The second key perspective is the on-chain data signals that transmit capital flow information.** This area is often overlooked by ordinary investors but is also the key point for judgment.