2025-12-28 04:22:17

As 2025 draws to a close, the trend of Ethereum(ETH) has fallen into a "stalemate battle."

The price is firmly held below $3,000, like an invisible ceiling. Every attempt to break through seems somewhat sluggish. What is really behind this? Is it truly unable to move forward, or is it just gathering strength?

Recent data indeed paints a somewhat painful picture. The US spot Ethereum ETF has been outflowing for several consecutive trading days, with a considerable cumulative scale. This is not a minor fluctuation—institutional funds are retreating, which is a very direct signal. Liquidity has suddenly dried up; forget about rebounds, even basic trading has become difficult.

Adding to this, the end-of-year period is typically a "hibernation season" for the market. Trading volume shrinks, and any slightly larger sell order can cause quite a stir. It’s like jumping without a cushion, and the fall will hurt more.

The macro environment is also not very optimistic. As soon as signals of delayed rate cuts from the Federal Reserve emerge, risk assets are immediately pressed down. Investors are watching the Fed’s moves; who dares to chase gains at such times? Therefore, risk assets like Ethereum naturally become "orphans."

Looking at the technical side, the situation is equally worrying. Since late August, the price has been tightly pressed down by a downward trendline, which acts like an invisible iron gate—every time it hits, it gets pushed back. More painfully, key moving averages like the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day are all lined up above the price, forming a solid "bear wall."

The arrangement of these moving averages itself indicates the problem—this is a classic bearish alignment, suggesting that the overall medium-term trend remains downward. There are no bright spots in the technical pattern; instead, it looks somewhat dangerous.

But it’s important to note: the short-term predicament does not mean there is no hope. Every time such suppression occurs, it is actually an accumulation of energy. Once external conditions change—for example, a restart of the rate-cut cycle, a recovery in risk appetite, or the emergence of a positive catalyst—these pressures could instantly turn into upward momentum.

For Ethereum traders, the key now is to identify these turning points. Don’t be fooled by short-term fluctuations; what truly matters are those factors that can change the overall situation: actual shifts in Federal Reserve policy, a recovery in the overall crypto market risk appetite, and the reflow of institutional funds.

The crypto market has always been like this—its darkest moments are often the most opportunities.

ETH0,16%

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NFTArchaeologis

· 18h ago

The moment institutions withdraw is often when on-chain artifacts accumulate; history always repeats its pattern.

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NeverVoteOnDAO

· 18h ago

Starting to talk about accumulation again, but I think no one wants it. --- Institutional funds are fleeing, that's the real story; everything else is just a placebo. --- Waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates? Probably waiting until the Year of the Horse in the Monkey Year. --- The bearish arrangement is so obvious, what hope is there to talk about? --- Is there a chance during the darkest times? Let's survive this first. --- The $3000 level is deadlocked; without liquidity, everything is pointless. --- Hibernation at the end of the year is truly heartbreaking; sell orders can cause big waves. --- Let me ask again, who still dares to buy the dip now? --- A rate cut is far off; I think ETH will just lie flat until next year. --- Every time, they say accumulation builds energy, but it still keeps falling. --- Moving averages are suppressing in line, technicals are a mess. --- Risk appetite recovery? Let's wait for the macro environment to improve first. --- Institutional outflows are so fierce, how can retail investors still play? --- Basically, there's no catalyst; what are we waiting for?

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WhaleWatcher

· 18h ago

This stalemate battle is really annoying, institutions are all fleeing, who dares to take over? The year-end "hibernation period" is like this, trading volume shrinks and nothing can be moved. The bearish arrangement is so neat, it looks uncomfortable... but on the other hand, once enough energy is accumulated, a rebound should happen. When the Federal Reserve finally loosens its grip, these suppressed funds will be able to breathe. Right now, it's all about who can endure until that turning point. Don't panic.

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AirdropHunter420

· 18h ago

It's the same old story... Accumulating energy at the bottom. I just want to ask, who still dares to buy the dip now? ETFs are still frantically fleeing. The institutions have already left, and we're still waiting for the bottom here? Really. $3000 is dead and buried at this point; it feels like it won't break before the end of the year. Waiting for the Federal Reserve to pivot? When will that be... The coins in our hands are being ground into dust. The darkest times often present the greatest opportunities. This is always said, but the account keeps getting darker.

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MissingSats

· 18h ago

ETH's $3000 resistance level is really nailed down, feels like there's no surprise Institutions are fleeing, liquidity is truly concerning Wait until the Federal Reserve actually starts cutting rates, anything else is pointless now The bottom is indeed being accumulated, just see who can hold on until that moment The end-of-year hibernation period is really torturous, trading volume is too miserable It seems a breakdown will have to wait until some black swan event next year The bearish alignment is so obvious, short-term rebounds are just traps What was said earlier is correct, the hardest times are often the opportunities

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unrekt.eth

· 18h ago

Institutions are fleeing, a bearish alignment is forming, and liquidity is drying up by the end of the year... Is this just waiting for a bottom confirmation or is a breakdown imminent? --- The 3000 resistance is so strong, it seems we have to wait for the Federal Reserve to loosen its stance before there's any hope. --- It's that same "accumulating energy" story again, just listen and laugh haha. --- With so much ETF outflow, this wave is indeed a bit tough, but maybe this is the final fear? --- The bearish alignment is right here, I dare not touch it in the short term, let's wait and see what the Federal Reserve says. --- What does the withdrawal of institutional funds mean? It indicates that smart money is waiting for lower prices. --- The darkest times are the opportunities... It would be great if that were true, but the premise is that you have to survive until that moment. --- It's been close to breaking below 3000 for a while now, it can't break through or defend, it's uncomfortable. --- The technicals are so weak, and you still want a rebound? Unless a black swan positive event crashes down. --- Looking at this article, it just means accumulating and waiting, anyway I already have a bottom position.

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digital_archaeologist

· 19h ago

Institutions are running away, retail investors are still bottom-fishing. This show is really quite a spectacle. --- The 3000 resistance level has been dead for so long, why does it seem like no one dares to bet on a breakdown? --- The continuous outflow of ETFs signals that no matter how optimistic the story, it’s all in vain. --- As the year-end hibernation period approaches and the Federal Reserve shows signs of complacency, this wave of ETH really feels a bit painful. --- The bearish arrangement is so obvious. Those calling the bottom now are probably betting on a policy shift. --- People say that the darkest times have the most opportunities. I think they’re just comforting themselves. --- Markets with liquidity exhaustion are most afraid of sudden sell-offs; by then, it’ll be impossible to escape. --- Wait, buying the bottom now is really not as good as waiting until the rate cut cycle is confirmed. Why take the risk? --- Large-scale withdrawals by institutions, this signal is louder than any technical indicator. --- A short-term dilemma does not mean there is no hope? I’ve heard this countless times, but ETH is still stuck there.

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