Many people have asked the question: "I follow technical indicators to buy the dip, why am I still losing money?" The answer is quite harsh—you're overlooking the most critical factor: the macroeconomic environment.

Bitcoin has long surpassed the label of a "small circle toy." The current situation is that crypto assets are now closely linked to the macroeconomy. Any policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve can directly impact Bitcoin's price movements. To judge where Bitcoin's bottom is, you can't just focus on news within the crypto community; you need to first look at the Federal Reserve.

**First Signal: The End of the Federal Reserve's Rate Hike Cycle**

What has been the main cause of the bear market in recent years? The Federal Reserve's continuous rate hikes. Rate hikes mean the US dollar appreciates, and funds naturally shift from risk assets (like Bitcoin) to dollar-denominated assets. Conversely, once the Fed stops raising rates or signals easing, Bitcoin will have a chance to rebound.

Historical examples are very illustrative: In March 2020, the Fed announced unlimited quantitative easing, and Bitcoin immediately bottomed out and rebounded; in November 2022, signals of slowing rate hikes emerged, and Bitcoin surged from 15,000 to 28,000. This is no coincidence.

How to judge if the Fed will stop raising rates? Two key data points must be observed: **Core PCE inflation data** and **Non-farm payrolls**. If the core PCE inflation rate has been declining for two consecutive months and non-farm payrolls start to weaken, it indicates inflation pressures have eased, and the Fed has no reason to continue rate hikes. Currently, the core PCE remains high, and non-farm data is still robust, which suggests the Fed will maintain its current policy for now, and the conditions for Bitcoin's bottom are not yet mature.

**Second Signal: The Trend of the US Dollar Index**

The strength or weakness of the US dollar directly determines whether funds are willing to enter the Bitcoin market. When the dollar index is strong, investors tend to hold dollars and dollar assets; when the dollar weakens, risk assets can attract funds. Only when the Fed's policy shifts and the dollar begins to weaken will Bitcoin have the opportunity for a new rally.