Bitcoin in 2026 is very likely to rise further, but this time it definitely won't be the crazy bull market like in 2021 where you could double your investment by blindly going all-in.

Rather than a sharp surge, it's more like an accelerating climb uphill. Moving up amidst volatility, experiencing several deep V-shaped corrections along the way—that's the real rhythm.

Now that it's the end of 2025, the market has actually reached a consensus. Most people predict that next year's BTC ceiling will be between $120,000 and $250,000, with the midpoint around $140,000 to $180,000.

Of course, there are the optimists who directly call for over $300,000. Conversely, the pessimists say the first half of the year might see a drop to $60,000–$80,000, shaking out those with weak resolve before a real rally can begin.

Just look at what mainstream institutions are saying. Old-timers like Grayscale are very confident— as regulatory frameworks become more完善, there's a chance to hit new all-time highs in the first half of next year. Citibank has set a 12-month target of $143,000, based on the expectation of continued ETF net inflows.

But there's an interesting contradiction here. Some well-known analysts who are openly bullish are shouting on media about hitting $300,000 next year. Yet privately, their internal reports tell a different story—they suggest that in the first half, prices might dip below $60,000 before rebounding in the second half.

This is the true picture of the market: bulls and bears both waiting for that key signal. The most probable source of this signal is the Federal Reserve's actions. Because currently, global capital flows are largely being influenced by the Fed's policy direction.