Today’s market scene is less of a trend day and more of a day where bulls and bears are "fighting each other." The bearish signals are clear, but the actions are not a one-sided plunge; instead, they are creating a chaotic battle between bulls and bears—this strategy is specifically designed to harvest the emotions of chasing gains and selling off.

Looking at the specific logic of BTC’s movement: on the signal level, the big players’ direction points to a bearish trend, but the execution method is to create volatility rather than directly crashing the price. From another perspective, it’s a rhythm of "market making + counterparty absorption"—the price will be pulled back and forth, using fluctuations to cleanse leveraged emotions. The prudent approach is to stay out of the market or refrain from entering for now.

Whale movements are even more interesting. Over the past few days, long positions have been steadily increasing, but at high levels, they start to consolidate or even slightly decline. This structure usually hints at two possibilities: one, whales maintain their positions but stop accelerating, letting the market digest the volatility; two, the surface looks bullish, but in reality, they are using hedging or turnover to amplify volatility and guide retail investors to provide liquidity.

From the perspective of M2 liquidity, the rhythm shows a pattern of "rising → pulling back → stabilizing and rebounding," indicating that liquidity marginally recovers but has not yet entered a favorable phase. This supports the idea of oscillation and tug-of-war rather than a one-way rapid surge or decline.

Based on these observations, a few key points to remember: First, don’t bet on direction to win; instead, bet on structure and certainty—only confirm breakouts at key levels or confirm pullbacks after false breakouts. Better to do less than to be the first to catch the falling knife. Second, the logic of holding a core position remains unchanged, but the pace of adding positions should be delayed; today, it’s better to add gradually on a rally.