The cryptocurrency market in 2026 is likely to follow a path of steady growth led by institutions rather than a retail frenzy of skyrocketing prices — characterized by divergence and upward differentiation, with volatility converging and steady progress. Instead of a "big bull run," it’s more of a structural bull market.

**What do institutions think?**

Predictions from several leading financial institutions are quite similar: Bitcoin is expected to surge to $150,000–$170,000 by the end of the year, with optimists even seeing $250,000 by the end of 2027. Behind this isn’t retail FOMO, but continuous capital inflows into spot ETFs — potentially exceeding $50 billion in 2026. Traditional wealth management is also beginning to allocate to crypto, gradually increasing from less than 0.5%.

**What’s the pace?**

The first half of the year may still experience some volatility, with real opportunities emerging in the second half. This growth cycle is no longer driven by halving bonuses but by institutional capital, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity-driven benefits. Expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising, the dollar is weakening, and de-dollarization is accelerating — making scarce assets like Bitcoin the preferred safe haven.

**What are the catalysts?**

Accelerated progress in US crypto legislation, and the gradual refinement of compliance frameworks for stablecoins, asset tokenization, and more, will attract genuine institutional capital. The scarcity of Bitcoin approaching 20 million coins, along with the expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem, RWA, and DeFi applications, are adding fuel. On-chain AI applications are also exploring their value step by step.

**What about risks?**

Some institutions remain cautious, feeling that short-term catalysts are lacking, which could lead to declining trading volumes. The pace of macro liquidity and regulatory implementation needs close attention — these factors could change market expectations at any time.