The gameplay of this round of the market seems completely different from before.

The previous pattern was like this: during a bull market, assets all rise together, followed by a long years-long decline. But now? The traditional four-year cycle theory seems to have completely failed. What we're experiencing is more like an extreme performance of MEME coins—crazy in the short term, but most of the funds haven't truly flowed into mainstream altcoins and Layer 1s. This wave of hype is essentially still a localized phenomenon.

Why is the old calendar no longer effective? The answer might be simpler and more straightforward than you think.

In the past, bull and bear cycles were almost entirely tied to Bitcoin halving events, and this "iron law" held for many years. But 2025 directly broke this logic. This year, the net outflow from the crypto market has already exceeded $300 billion, with the total market cap starting at $3.26 trillion at the beginning of the year, experiencing one intense fluctuation after another. Honestly, the data is very clear.

What truly controls the market now isn't the halving cycle, but where global capital flows—more precisely, what the Federal Reserve is doing, how fast US government debt is growing, and how much liquidity various central banks are releasing. These macroeconomic factors in traditional finance have completely overshadowed the halving concept. Industry analysts are saying, "The four-year cycle is dead; what’s coming is a liquidity cycle."

The market still looks the same, but the game rules have definitely changed.