To be honest, we should really throw away the old rule of "halving bull market → crash bear market" that we used to follow.

At the beginning of last year, the market cap hit a record high of $4.28 trillion, but then it experienced a net outflow of over $300 billion, with the market playing two roller coaster rounds. Looking back now, that mechanical four-year cycle theory simply cannot explain the current market trend. What truly drives the market are the two major variables—liquidity and macro policies—such as the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and the government's changing attitude towards crypto. The impact of these factors far exceeds historical cycles. Rigidly applying old models may cause us to miss opportunities.

Another phenomenon worth noting is that this year's MEME coins (like WIF, BONK) have indeed surged wildly, but we shouldn't be dazzled by the short-term行情—these tokens are fundamentally driven by sentiment and token rotation, with limited sustainability. There are other players quietly positioning, such as the several hundred billion dollars flowing into spot ETFs of BTC and ETH, and the RWA (Real World Assets) sector which has grown by 34.8% over the past two years.

Interestingly, I believe the big rally for altcoins has not yet truly unfolded. Why do I say that? Mainly based on a few signals:

First, mainstream tokens like SOL and ETH have already returned to last year's end levels, and the bubbles accumulated before have been mostly squeezed out. Second, on-chain data shows that exchange reserves of BTC have been declining, with large amounts of funds moving into self-custody wallets, indicating that big players are waiting for the right moment. Lastly, some new narratives—such as the integration of AI and blockchain, and infrastructure tracks like DePIN—are still in the brewing stage, and the story has not been fully told yet.