2025-12-28 02:40:29

#大户持仓变化 Recently, the market has been speculating on the Federal Reserve's "Reserve Management Purchase (RMP)," with many touting it as the prelude to a new round of QE. Actually, it's not that complicated.

Looking at the balance sheet expansion in December 2025, the Fed mainly aims to maintain reserve levels and cope with economic growth and seasonal liquidity pressures. In plain terms, this is routine maintenance work, with no policy shift in sight. From December to April next year, the scale will stay high, then gradually decline. Essentially, it's liquidity management—keeping market interest rates stable and preventing wild swings—without changing the policy stance.

If you ask which is more aggressive, RMP or QE? Well, there's a big difference. RMP is just "helping you manage interest rates," staying within the policy corridor. QE? That’s a bold move during crises—when rates are already at zero and further stimulation is needed, directly smashing long-term rates to rescue the economy. One is maintenance, the other is rescue. They may look similar on paper, but their motivations and effects are completely different.

Looking back at the Federal Reserve’s century-long ledger, true (or quasi-) QE expansions only occurred during four major crises: the Great Depression (1929-1933), World War II entry (1941), Lehman Crisis (2008), and the pandemic shock (2020). Notice a common point—these all happened when interest rates had already fallen to zero. So, before the Fed cuts rates to zero again, QE is unlikely to reappear. The next round of QE? That will have to wait for the next major crisis.

What lessons does this have for us crypto traders? In the current phase of conventional monetary policy, interest rates are the main steering wheel. Don’t over-focus on the Fed’s balance sheet figures. Don’t rely on the pace of balance sheet expansion to predict asset movements—2008 was a painful lesson in that.

A reminder: rising geopolitical risks, unexpected economic weakness in the US, and sudden hawkish shifts by the Fed could all disrupt the game. $ETH $ZEC $BNB

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GasWaster

· 14h ago

Wake up everyone, RMP does not equal QE. Don't let market sentiment dictate the rhythm. Only during a real crisis will major moves be made. Right now is just routine financial management. Interest rates are the real trump card. Don't keep dreaming about the Federal Reserve's ledger every day. When geopolitics gets chaotic, the entire market gets disturbed. That's what you should really be watching.

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ContractTearjerker

· 14h ago

Wake up, RMP is not QE at all. Don't be led by the rhythm. By the way, I like this logic. Interest rates are the core, and the on-paper expansion numbers aren't that impressive. Wait, so how will the market trend in the second half of the year? That's the real focus. Do we have to wait for a crisis to see true QE? Then how long do we need to hold our positions and wait?

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SadMoneyMeow

· 14h ago

I appreciate your detailed explanation, but the market is still full of nonsense, it's really exhausting. Betting that interest rates won't drop to zero again, or that would be a real big event. RMP is just for show, the capital market loves to hear stories. Feeling tired, this round we have to watch geopolitical issues again. It feels like the next crisis will take a long time to arrive, right now it's just noise. Interest rates are the key, don't be fooled by the expanded balance sheet numbers. It's just pure liquidity maintenance, nothing new.

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DAOdreamer

· 14h ago

Are you still trading RMP as QE? Wake up, it's not the same thing at all. RMP is just routine maintenance; QE is the real crisis mode. That's right, interest rates are the key; don't just stare at the balance sheet and overthink. Wait until zero interest rates come, then talk about QE. It's not happening now. This round of geopolitical risks is a variable; we need to keep an eye on it.

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ZKProofEnthusiast

· 14h ago

Is RMP being equated with QE again? Wake up, these two are not the same thing at all. Seeing too many of these confusing arguments... Interest rates are the real key, stop dreaming about the Fed's books. Wait, this logic has a problem. Zero interest rates are the bottom line of QE? Then we're still a long way off. Really, don't be fooled by the tricks of balance sheet expansion. The crisis won't be over until QE truly arrives. I just want to know, does this round of RMP actually help the coin prices? Looking back at history, these four QE episodes are quite interesting. That's right, during the normal policy phase, interest rates are what matter. Let's not guess blindly. Geopolitics + economy + hawkish stance, a triple kill combo. Be careful of a big hit.

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MoonWaterDroplets

· 14h ago

Basically, it's just a marketing gimmick, a bunch of people panicking uncontrollably. This round of RMP is definitely not QE; just listen and don't take it seriously. Interest rates are the real boss; those numbers on the balance sheet are useless. They're starting to hype it up again, same as always. Wake up, everyone. Only when a real crisis hits will there be QE. Don't guess blindly for now.

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