The last seven days of 2025 saw the crypto market reach a watershed moment amid extreme panic and institutional undercurrents. Industry data shows that the Fear and Greed Index has been stuck at 23 for two consecutive weeks, plunging the market into a state of "extreme fear." However, amidst this atmosphere of impending storm, on-chain whale counter-moves, industry leaders' forward-looking judgments, and actions taken by some core projects are painting a completely different picture—perhaps these are the real signals worth watching.

The reality is quite sobering. According to industry analysis, Bitcoin needs to close the year above $93,389 to deliver positive returns in 2025. Behind this seemingly simple number lies the significant difficulty the market faces.

But that’s what makes it interesting. When most are panicking, what are some smart money players doing? Reports indicate that a certain whale address has spent approximately $4.7 million worth of ETH over the past four days, aggressively buying AAVE at an average price of $156.65. Currently, this address holds nearly 60,000 AAVE tokens, with a paper value close to $9.24 million—yet the unrealized loss has already reached $4.26 million. What does it mean when someone continues to buy despite holding a position in loss? It suggests that in extreme panic, someone is seeing what others cannot.

Even more intriguing is the reaction at the institutional level. Despite the market remaining calm, the flow of funds into US Bitcoin ETPs has remained surprisingly stable. This stark contrast between retail panic and institutional composure is building up enough tension for 2026.