2025-12-28 02:24:08

Next week, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be released (Thursday at 2:00 AM Beijing time), and all eyes in the market are focused on this document—hoping to find the Fed's true stance on interest rate cuts.

This is where it gets interesting. What if the minutes reveal hawkish signals? Emphasizing that inflation risks have not yet dissipated, and that there is no rush to ease, but rather a desire to maintain high interest rates for a period—then the outcome is predictable—the US dollar will be pushed higher, high-valuation growth stocks in the US stock market will suffer, and US Treasury yields will rise. Simply put, it’s like pouring cold water on overly optimistic rate cut expectations in the market.

Conversely, what if the minutes show a dovish stance? Starting to seriously discuss the timing of rate cuts, expressing satisfaction with inflation levels, or even mentioning downside risks—that story flips—the stock market continues to rally, the dollar is pressured lower, US Treasury yields decline, and the "easing trade" continues full speed ahead.

However, there is a detail worth noting: the minutes record discussions from weeks ago, but the market is looking ahead. Therefore, new PMI data, PCE inflation figures, and the latest statements from Fed officials released before and after the minutes are equally important, as they may already reflect the latest shifts in stance.

In simple terms, this is a "expectation gap" contest. If the minutes show that the Fed is more cautious than market expectations, risk assets could be caught off guard, leading to a significant correction. Be mentally prepared, as volatility could strike at any moment.

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ForkInTheRoad

· 9h ago

Staying up at 2 a.m. to review the minutes, just waiting to see what Powell and others say... If it's a hawkish signal, it's over; overvalued stocks will take another hit.

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TopBuyerForever

· 18h ago

At 2 a.m., I definitely have to stay up for this train. Last time, I was caught off guard by the hawkish sell-off. --- Another gamble. When the hawks come, the US stock market just cracks open. --- The minutes are old news; the key is still the upcoming data. Don’t be fooled by the tricks. --- I just want to know if this time we’ll keep the party going or get a cold shower. My wallet is already prepared. --- The expectation gap—this is the most deceptive thing. Last time, I fell for it right here. --- Waiting for Thursday early morning for this. Is it worth it, everyone? --- If the dovish side, I just lie flat and earn; if the hawkish side, I lie flat and lose. Anyway, you can't escape. --- The Federal Reserve loves to tease us like this, speaking unclearly so we have to guess. --- Psychological preparation? I’ve long been ready for a crash. --- The minutes show the past; the market looks at the future. How do we bet when there’s just a week difference?

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GhostChainLoyalist

· 18h ago

Thursday at 2 a.m., time to stay up and watch the market again? Hawkish comments cause the US stocks to crash directly, while dovish ones throw a banquet. This round of minutes is just a casino roulette. By the way, minutes are inherently lagging; officials' remarks might have already leaked the news quite a bit. This time, we really need to look at PMI and PCE. The expectation gap is the most annoying thing; a small pullback would be mild in comparison. Waiting for the Thursday riot.

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RektButSmiling

· 18h ago

At 2 a.m., staying up for the minutes, only to be beaten down by hawks. I know this script all too well. It's another game of expectation differences; betting on the wrong direction leads to an explosion. Are the minutes dovish or hawkish? Honestly, it depends on whether the Federal Reserve wants to harvest the profits. The high valuation of US stocks is about to suffer; they should have cut interest rates earlier. Why the hesitation? Data is the real boss; the minutes are just a smokescreen. Staying awake Thursday early morning waiting for a paper—how tough must your mentality be? This easing trade train, once on board, don’t expect to get off. Be prepared for risk assets to be hammered. In the face of expectation differences, everyone is just a leek. Federal Reserve: I just want to see how anxious you all look.

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GateUser-bd883c58

· 19h ago

At 2 a.m. on Thursday, this move feels mostly like a hawkish signal. Those high-valuation stocks in the US stock market are likely to fall.

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MissedTheBoat

· 19h ago

Thursday at 2 a.m., I have to stay up late to read the paper articles... Basically, it's just betting on the expectation gap. When hawkish signals come, growth stocks are doomed; when dovish signals come, the market continues to be happy. There's no third way in between, which is ridiculous.

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