Entering the world of crypto trading, you will notice a strange phenomenon: there are always people screaming at the bottom "Buying opportunity is here," and there are always others shouting at the top "Run fast, it's about to crash." The question is, are these voices based on solid market expertise or just gamblers relying on luck?

Every time you scroll through social media, you see a flood of "professional analysts" and "seasoned experts." They recommend buying today, and tomorrow they’re shouting to sell, as if the entire crypto market is under their control. But what’s the reality? Most of the time, they’re just lucky enough to boast all year, and when they actually lose money, they disappear without a trace.

Interestingly, those who truly thrive in the crypto market never rely on predicting tops and bottoms for their livelihood. They have paid countless tuition fees with real money, spent years studying the candlestick charts, and only after that have they developed a market-tested framework. This framework isn’t mystical nor based on inspiration—it comes from a deep understanding of market cycles.

**The four stages of the market determine whether you profit or lose**

The price fluctuations of crypto assets are not random but follow a relatively fixed cyclical logic: Accumulation → Uptrend → Distribution → Downtrend.

What does the accumulation phase look like? The market is at the bottom, trading volume is quiet, and investor sentiment is generally pessimistic. Price movements are modest, but this is precisely the golden moment for smart money to quietly position themselves. They absorb large amounts of heavily undervalued chips during this stage, laying the groundwork for the next big move.

Once the uptrend begins, the market starts to gain vitality. Prices rise slowly but steadily, and investor psychology shifts from despair to anticipation. The best thing to do at this point is to hold your assets and let compound interest work for you. But many people can’t sit still at this stage and get scared by short-term fluctuations, cashing out too early.

The distribution phase is the most dangerous. Prices reach or approach historical highs, and market sentiment becomes euphoric—everyone is talking about crypto, even taxi drivers are discussing coins. At this point, market risk is extremely high, with violent price swings, making it the true top-selling moment. Greedy investors are often the biggest victims here.

When the downtrend arrives, panic sets in, and prices start to sink. The most common mistake occurs here: beginners see the sharp decline and, driven by fear, blindly buy the dip, only to see prices fall further, resulting in heavy losses and being forced out.

**Why do most people always go against the rhythm? The root cause is actually simple: human nature.**

When the market is at the bottom, all information is telling bad stories—projects stagnate, trading volume shrinks, big influencers are bearish. At this point, it takes courage to buy, and you must fight against strong fear. Most people can’t do it. When prices rise to the sky and good news floods in, those who enter at this stage think they are chosen by fate, but they don’t realize they are already in danger. The market repeatedly eats away at those who follow the herd.

The true logic of making money is counterintuitive, but human intuition often deceives us.