To be honest, after so many years in the crypto space, I really dislike that noble rhetoric of the "decentralization revolution." Today, I'll be straightforward—Bitcoin is essentially a high-volatility investment asset; its ups and downs are just a triangular game involving liquidity, leverage, and human greed.

Recently, Bitcoin dropped below $81,000, and there was even a flash crash of nearly 70% in a single day (though only on a less liquid trading pair). This precisely illustrates what the market reality is.

**Insufficient Liquidity "Paper-thin Support"**

The incident on the early morning of December 26th is probably still fresh in many people's minds. On a major exchange's BTC trading pair, the price suddenly plummeted from $87,600 to $24,100 in seconds, then rebounded. Sounds like a crash? In reality, it’s just the old problem of low-liquidity trading pairs—the order book isn’t deep enough. A large sell order hits the market, and the buy side gets penetrated directly.

But it’s not just a technical glitch. The entire market liquidity itself is quite fragile right now: market makers reduce positions during holidays, Bitcoin spot ETFs are experiencing continuous net outflows (BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw over $90 million outflow in a single day), and hard assets like gold and silver are attracting significant capital (gold has risen 70% in a year, while Bitcoin has fallen 8%). Large funds are moving out of high-risk assets. Rate cuts by the Federal Reserve? They haven't been able to change this situation.

**Leverage is a Double-Edged Sword**

Indeed, some say that playing virtual currencies without leverage is pointless, and I agree. Mainstream coins fluctuate by about 10% daily, so with 10x leverage, the ups and downs become 100%. It sounds like an opportunity for quick wealth, but it quickly turns into a margin call notice.

Currently, market sentiment is fragile, and even a slight breeze can trigger chain reactions of liquidations—futures positions are high, and short positions are heavily stacked. When large swings occur, forced liquidations can instantly amplify volatility.

Ultimately, this is a game of liquidity and psychological expectations. Failed rate cut expectations, hard asset inflows, and quiet holiday trading—these factors combined mean Bitcoin and the entire crypto market need to find new support levels.