The big bear market is unimaginable, but we can see it approaching.

The most obvious characteristic of a bear market is a sharp decline in trading volume. Currently, the daily Bitcoin trading volume on mainstream exchanges ranges between $10 billion and $50 billion, while some contract trading platforms see daily volumes of around $500 million to $1.5 billion. This is a typical sign in the early stages of a bear market.

Interestingly, most of the current bulls were previously bears. They escaped precisely at the top and now want to accumulate during the dip, but they are caught in the four-year halving cycle — this is Bitcoin’s destiny.

According to the halving cycle pattern, as long as Bitcoin does not break through $126,200 in 2026, it remains within the cycle. If the bear cycle is short, the bull market will become increasingly brief. Afterward, a super bull market lasting up to three years will follow. My judgment is that the lowest point of the bear market will occur around the end of 2026, with October possibly being a good window for positioning. However, as the cycle shortens, the bottom may come one or two months earlier.

From the panic index perspective, when prices are between $30,000 and $60,000 in 2026 and the index is around 10, it will be an opportunity for heavy accumulation.

Another key signal that cannot be ignored: countries like Germany and the US already hold large amounts of Bitcoin, and Ukraine has accepted digital currency aid during the Russia-Ukraine war. This indicates that national institutions have recognized Bitcoin’s value. By the big cycle in 2028, central banks around the world will treat Bitcoin as digital gold reserves.

The final advice is simple: position yourself by the end of 2026, hold until the 18th month after the 2029 halving, and then sell at the peak. History is always remarkably similar, and the cycle pattern never changes.