#央行政策 Seeing the mention of the $86,000 threshold, a familiar feeling arose in my mind. Over the years, I've experienced enough cycles, and before every major technical support is broken, there is always a period of relief—low trading volume, limited market confidence, and the market waiting for signals.

At the end of the 2017 cycle, I remember it was the same rhythm. Investors were watching central bank policies and macroeconomic data, trying to find a breakthrough direction. Support levels were discussed one after another until suddenly, it all collapsed at a certain moment. The difference was that back then, our respect for risk was not enough.

Now, it's different. The influence of central bank policies is greater than ever; a single statement from the Federal Reserve can shake the entire market. Bitcoin has fallen from $90,000 back to this level, which seems like a technical adjustment, but actually reflects the market re-evaluating risk. The low trading volume is also a warning—genuine buying power is on the sidelines, no one wants to catch the falling knife in the unknown.

History tells me that when everyone is waiting for signals, those signals often give you an unexpected answer. If the $86,000 really cannot hold, there may be more support levels to test. But this doesn't necessarily mean disaster; sometimes, adjustments are just a process of cleansing the market and preparing for the next cycle. The key is to understand your own risk tolerance and your role in this cycle.

The implementation of central bank policies will be the critical watershed.