The Federal Reserve meeting minutes next week are about to be released, expected to be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. This document will serve as an important reference for the market to judge the direction of monetary policy.

From market reactions, the tone of the minutes is crucial. If it leans hawkish—emphasizing inflation risks, not rushing to ease, and maintaining high interest rates— the US dollar may strengthen, growth stocks may be under pressure, and US Treasury yields may rise. This would break the current market expectation of rate cuts. Conversely, if it shows dovish tendencies—discussing when to start rate cuts, focusing on economic slowdown risks, and expressing optimism about inflation improvement—stocks are likely to continue rising, the US dollar may weaken, bond yields may decline, and the "easing trade" logic will be reinforced.

But there is a detail worth noting: the minutes are a record of the meeting from several weeks ago, and the market always looks forward. Newly released economic data (PMI, PCE Price Index) and recent statements from Federal Reserve officials often already reflect new policy ideas ahead of the minutes. Therefore, relying solely on the surface of the minutes can easily lead to pitfalls.

The key is to grasp the "expectation gap"—the deviation between the Federal Reserve's actual stance and market consensus. If the minutes reveal that the Fed's caution exceeds expectations, risk assets are likely to adjust downward. Volatility next week is inevitable, and investors need to be prepared both psychologically and in terms of positions.