The cryptocurrency market over the next two years (2026–2027) will follow a pattern of "the strong get stronger, the weak are eliminated." Prioritize long positions in core assets recognized by institutions with strong fundamentals and technical/regulatory catalysts; for short positions, focus on worthless narratives with high selling pressure, air coins with regulatory/liquidity risks, and leveraged derivatives. The following are specific targets and operational logic.

1. Priority Long List (sorted by certainty)

1. BTC (Certainty 90%)
- Core Drivers: Continuous ETF capital inflows, scarcity post-halving, institutional demand for "digital gold" allocation; target price 150,000–200,000 USD by 2027
- Risks: Macro liquidity tightening, ETF redemption waves; Operations: phased dollar-cost averaging + adding on dips, total position ≤40%, stop-loss at 60,000 USD
2. ETH (Certainty 85%)
- Core Drivers: Prague/Electra upgrades improving Rollup performance, stable staking yields, leading position in DeFi/L2 ecosystems; target price 80,000–100,000 USD by 2027
- Risks: L2 sharding, technical upgrades underperforming; Operations: mainly spot, build position on dips to 2,800–2,900 USD, total position ≤30%
3. SOL (Certainty 80%)
- Core Drivers: High-performance public chain (65,000 TPS, low fees), active Meme/DeFi/NFT ecosystems, continuous institutional accumulation; target price 300–600 USD by 2027
- Risks: Network stability, regulatory scrutiny; Operations: build on dips to 165–180 USD in batches, total position ≤15%
4. XRP (Certainty 75%)
- Core Drivers: Favorable SEC lawsuit developments, accelerated cross-border payment collaborations, ETF expectations; target price 3.8–4.5 USD by 2027
- Risks: Institutional adoption falling short; Operations: build on dips to 1.6–1.8 USD, total position ≤10%
5. ONDO (Certainty 70%)
- Core Drivers: RWA compliance benchmark, managing billions in tokenized US bonds, endorsed by institutions like BlackRock; target price 5–8 USD by 2027
- Risks: Traditional financial risk transmission; Operations: one-time purchase after 25% dip, total position ≤5%

2. Priority Short List (sorted by probability of collapse)

1. PUMP3S (Collapse probability 90%)
- Core Risks: PUMP is an air coin, with two major addresses controlling 82.24% of circulating supply; Pump.fun revenue plummeted 92%, facing SEC lawsuit, potentially zero at any time
- Operations: Short on rebounds to 0.00001 USD, target 0.000001 USD, stop-loss at 0.000015 USD
2. TRUMP5S (Collapse probability 75%)
- Core Risks: No official authorization, SEC froze $230 million assets, 94% of tokens held by 40 whales, retail losses exceeding $3.87 billion
- Operations: Short on rebounds to 0.0005 USD, target 0.0001 USD, stop-loss at 0.0007 USD
3. WLFI3S (Collapse probability 60%)
- Core Risks: Centralized governance, 80% of locked tokens unlocking and increasing sell pressure, slow USD1 stablecoin development, SEC regulatory attention
- Operations: Short on rebounds to 0.001 USD, target 0.0005 USD, stop-loss at 0.0015 USD
4. SXT (Collapse probability 55%)
- Core Risks: FDV of $850 million far exceeds peers, lagging in technical delivery, 150 million tokens unlocking monthly, market enthusiasm waning
- Operations: Short at 0.15–0.17 USD, target 0.10 USD, stop-loss at 0.20 USD

3. Core Principles for Long/Short Strategies

- Long: Adhere to "fundamentals + capital flow + technical resonance," total leverage ≤1.5x, no overexposure to a single coin
- Short: Only target worthless narratives + high selling pressure assets, set strict stop-losses, avoid liquidity crises leading to margin calls
- Risk Control: Set stop-loss on every trade, keep total loss within **5%**, regularly review and adjust positions