1. Market Overview Current ETH market price is $2,944.02, based on the latest closing price in the K-line data. The 14-day K-line shows that ETH price has fallen from a high of $3,177.5, repeatedly breaking below the key psychological level of $3,000, with volatility narrowing significantly. Recently, most of the time has been spent oscillating narrowly around $2,900-$3,000. Short-term hourly K-line data indicates a gradual downward trend, with highs gradually decreasing. Over the past two days, trading volume has alternated between expansion and contraction, with the largest daily volume occurring on days of significant volatility, reaching a maximum of 372,485 ETH. Recently, daily volume has dropped to 5,678.58 ETH, indicating weakening market activity and investors becoming more cautious. Regarding market sentiment, news reports repeatedly emphasize the negative impact of "breaking below $3,000," and on-chain data shows ETH supply continuously declining, with investors adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Analysts also point out that "long positions should be cautious of extreme lows at $2,620," confirming market concern over further downside risk. Simultaneously, large whale sell-offs have attracted significant market attention, with short-term risk appetite remaining under pressure.

2. Technical Analysis Using 14-day and 48-hour K-line analysis, ETH is currently in a clear downtrend channel. The 14-day high is $3,177.5, and the low is $2,775.19, but the recent week’s trading range has narrowed to $2,940-$2,990. From hourly K-line observations, $2,950 has become a short-term resistance level, while the $2,920-$2,940 range has repeatedly provided temporary support. Support levels: the recent lowest point is $2,917.13 (yesterday’s hourly low). If broken, key support below includes the 14-day range low of $2,876 and close to $2,775. Resistance levels: $2,951.86 and $2,960.89 have repeatedly failed to break through in recent attempts; only a successful breakout could signal a resumption of the upward trend. Volume analysis shows that short-term volume spikes are mainly concentrated in the $2,940-$2,970 range, accompanying slight rebounds in price, but volume continues to shrink, indicating insufficient upward momentum. The 14-day K-line nearly consistently shows long lower shadows, suggesting some support below but limited momentum. MACD and moving average analysis cannot be performed due to incomplete raw data, thus no clear reversal signals are indicated.

3. News and Policy Interpretation Recent market news states, “Major ETH whale sells another 5,000 ETH, totaling 40,621 ETH sold,” with an average transaction price of about $2,917, indicating increased willingness of top funds to exit, directly suppressing market rebound expectations. On-chain analysis emphasizes that “Ethereum has been under pressure for most of December, with breaking below $3,000 leaving clear traces of position reduction.” Additionally, news of large ETH staking by Bitmine suggests that while there is confidence in ETH’s long-term ecosystem, short-term capital flows are more prominent. Regarding market policies, data shows no new regulatory or policy developments in the past 24 hours, past week, or past month, maintaining a stable policy environment with no direct impact on current price fluctuations.

4. Analyst Opinions Compilation "#ETH上次也是2900多的单子到3000多止盈，已经连续在2900一周时间了，伙伴们需要注意上次暴跌的低点是2620左右，所以喜欢做空的伙伴或是没注意的，一定要知道极端的低点，这样行情来了才不会慌乱失措。”——分析师原文“#ETH nearly doubled! Brothers, should you follow this order? #ETH TP1 touched as low as 2893, after reducing and hedging, continue to hold." — Original analyst quote “#ETH long position entry: 2960-2990 take profit: 2901-2839 stop loss: 3019.” — Original analyst quote All above analyst opinions are direct quotations. As seen, mainstream views are cautious on ETH, clearly indicating support levels at lows and resistance at highs, setting multiple partial take-profit zones for short positions, and emphasizing shorting in the 2960-2990 range. The actual market performance aligns with these views, with prices oscillating repeatedly between 2900 and 3000, limited breakout strength, and support levels being tested continuously, consistent with the analysts’ judgments on extreme lows and swing trading, with no significant deviations.

5. Future Trend Forecast and Trading Suggestions The short-term market trend is expected to remain within a range, with resistance at $2,951-$2,960 and support at $2,917 and around $2,880. If subsequent K-line breaks below the previous low of $2,917, the price is likely to test support at $2,876 or even lower at $2,775. If the price can stabilize above $2,940-$2,950 with volume continuing to expand, it may challenge the resistance zone above $2,970, aiming for a further rebound toward the strong resistance at $3,000. Trading suggestions are as follows: Short-term traders can attempt short positions near $2,950-$2,960, targeting $2,900-$2,880, with stop-loss above $2,970. If the price briefly breaks below $2,920 with decreasing volume, avoid chasing shorts; instead, wait for stabilization signals around $2,876 before considering low-buying for rebounds. For larger timeframes, do not rush to chase rallies; continue with a high short/low long strategy.

6. Risk Warning ETH is currently in a stock capital game, with decreasing volatility space. In the short term, the market is constrained by top-tier fund selling, with low trading volume, and prices are susceptible to rapid declines triggered by large individual trades, especially around $2,917 and $2,880. Breaking below these levels could lead to sharp drops. If the price falls below the absolute low of $2,775.19 on the 14-day K-line, strict risk control and position management are necessary. Attention should be paid to the persistent low volume during rebounds; whether the rebound can sustain remains to be further verified. Investors must set clear stop-loss levels to avoid significant losses during volatile swings. Overall, ETH’s short-term risk remains biased upward; conservative strategies should focus on range trading, buying low and selling high, avoiding heavy leverage or chasing rallies recklessly.