Everyone is paying attention to one thing—when will the Fed actually move?

The latest CME FedWatch Tool just released data showing the probability distribution for the January rate decision: an 82.3% chance to keep rates unchanged, and only a 17.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut. It seems the market is still in "wait-and-see" mode, but if you stop here, you're being too naive.

The real signal is in March.

By March, the probability of holding rates steady has dropped to 46.7%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 45.6%. The two are almost evenly split. Even more extreme, there’s a 7.7% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. This isn’t just small fluctuations—it's the market quietly changing its tune.

You can interpret this as the market "voting with its feet." The shift from January’s "stick to high rates" to March’s "split decision" reflects what’s behind this probability reversal: a turning point in liquidity is approaching. The seemingly impregnable "high interest rate fortress" of the Fed is beginning to show cracks.

If the expectation of rate cuts continues to ferment, will it become the "black swan" that kicks off 2024? Historically, every time expectations shift, crypto assets react very sensitively. Mainstream coins like BTC, ZEC, XRP—you're familiar with their sensitivity to macro liquidity.

Will March be the critical window? Share your thoughts in the comments.