Recently, I have been working on iterations of the quantitative trading version and interface updates, which are now basically wrapped up. I took the opportunity to organize my thoughts on the market.

Time flies, and it’s already late October 2024. The monthly trend showed a slight pullback as expected, but the market environment at that time was quite interesting — policy adjustments and major events in November were all on the horizon. Both bulls and bears had their own arguments, and both sides’ logic sounded convincing.

My bullish reasoning at the time was quite straightforward: two events could resonate. Whether one or the other materialized, it would be positive for asset prices. But friends who were bearish in the market didn’t see it that way; they believed that the policies from September had already overextended expectations, and with key events possibly not unfolding as expected, even rate cuts wouldn’t push prices to new heights.

To be honest, because my judgment in September was off, I was quite "cyber-bullied" during various discussions at that time. Coincidentally, the market still retraced on the monthly chart, and my firm bullish stance became a source of ridicule. The bottom of that retracement was around November 5th, when Bitcoin was hovering around 675 and Ethereum was about 2350. I called out in the group to get in, but only a few responded.

During that period, I had already opened quite a few long positions on altcoins, but they were full positions rather than incremental. Approaching the pre-election...