#央行政策 Re-examining the four-year cycle logic framework of Bitcoin. The analysis by 10x Research highlights a key shift: halving events are no longer the central anchor of the price cycle, replaced by liquidity environment and institutional funding decision rhythms.

This shift is worth tracking. The three historical peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 indeed follow cyclical patterns, but the underlying driving factors have evolved—from retail investor sentiment-driven to institutional cautious decision-making. The current situation just confirms this: as the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle begins, traditional logic suggests Bitcoin should react strongly, but the actual trend shows a noticeable slowdown in institutional entry, with overall liquidity tightening reducing the momentum for price breakthroughs.

On-chain data also supports this judgment. Recently, whale holdings have changed relatively mildly, and large fund inflows and outflows are less volatile than in previous years. Against the backdrop of ongoing uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy signals, institutions are clearly waiting for clearer liquidity confirmation.

In the short term, Bitcoin is more likely to maintain a range-bound consolidation rather than rapidly start a new trend. This precisely gives us more time to observe the actual changes in on-chain funds, waiting for genuine incremental capital signals rather than being misled by short-term fluctuations.