#Polymarket预测市场 The hype around prediction markets has indeed arrived. Phantom and Coinbase almost simultaneously launched their platforms, which is no coincidence — institutions have sensed a market gap.

After reviewing Phantom's approach, based on the Kalshi framework, with parallel tracks of sports, crypto, and culture, this sector choice is relatively balanced. Coinbase's strategy is more aggressive, not only launching prediction markets but also tokenizing stocks, developing in-house rather than outsourcing, indicating their goal is to create an ecosystem closed loop.

From a follow-trader perspective, opportunities and risks coexist. Traders in prediction markets have a completely different style from futures/spot — they have stronger information pricing ability, faster emotional swings, and risks concentrated in black swan events. If you want to follow traders on such platforms, the first priority is to assess how well they understand "information asymmetry," rather than just looking at historical returns.

Coinbase's moves are more worth watching; the December 17 release may trigger liquidity, and platform differences will gradually become apparent. It is recommended to observe the early performance of top traders on Phantom first, and then decide on position splitting after Coinbase's official announcement. There are many newcomers in prediction markets with large cognitive gaps — which is a good thing — it means there is enough Alpha space, but the cost of choosing the wrong trader can be significant.