Gold and other precious metals have hit new all-time highs, but liquidity in the crypto market is drying up. Next week is a critical juncture—data is sparse during the New Year holiday, trading is light, but one thing must be watched closely: the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes will be released at 03:00 Tuesday.

This minutes essentially serve as a signal light for the interest rate cut outlook in 2026. If officials remain concerned about inflation and keep interest rate cuts on hold, risk assets may face a brief suppression; conversely, if a dovish signal is conveyed, the crypto market could continue its strong momentum. The problem is, with liquidity so poor right now, even a small gust of wind can trigger intense volatility.

Although the crypto market has recently shown independent movement, seemingly decoupled from macro trends, don’t be fooled—The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy remains the anchor for global asset pricing. The link between Bitcoin and macro sentiment has never truly been severed.

Also worth noting: Wednesday’s initial jobless claims and Friday’s PMI final figures are data points that could easily cause market shocks. While liquidity has yet to recover after the holiday, avoid chasing highs. Stick to your positions and wait for the real big move, which is expected to unfold in the second week of January.

In summary: Low liquidity combined with the Fed’s signals will likely cause volatility to rise significantly. Hold your spot positions firmly, stay away from high leverage, and focus on the statements regarding inflation and rate cuts in the minutes—these are the true directional indicators for 2026’s start.

(This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.)