#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the probability of Wosh on Polymarket jump from 7% directly to 38%, I sounded a warning in my mind. The data fluctuations in such prediction markets look very "scientific," but they often hide signs of information asymmetry and capital-driven manipulation.

I've done too many of these analyses—following prediction market data only to end up getting caught off guard. Polymarket indeed has its value, but the problem is that retail investors often see delayed results that have been influenced by large funds. When you see a certain option's probability surge, the institutional investors with inside information have already started their early positioning.

The phrase "Yes, I think he is" about Trump sounds like a clear signal, but this is also a common tactic—ambiguous statements from leaders are often overinterpreted, causing market expectations to fluctuate repeatedly. I've seen too many times where such "good news" ultimately turn into signals for harvesting retail investors.

To survive longer in these markets, remember: the change in probabilities in prediction markets itself is a trading signal, not a truth indicator. Don't rush to bet just because you see data. The question you should ask is—are these probability jumps driven by real information or just capital games? Until you figure that out, the safest approach is to observe and refrain from participating.