Are you planning to rely on the central bank's liquidity injection to turn things around in early 2026? Forget it, the market is calmly facing reality.

The latest data from Polymarket hits hard: the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January has already surged to 88%, with only a 12% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. Compared to December mid-month's 78%, this rise reflects the market's rapidly fading hope for a dovish Fed.

Why is the Fed so "iron-fisted"? There are three main reasons.

**First, economic resilience is in question — it’s unnaturally strong.** The U.S. Department of Commerce revised the Q3 GDP annualized growth rate from an expected 3.3% up to 4.3%. Consumption, exports, and government spending all surged simultaneously, producing an apparently unrealistic growth figure. Despite strikes, layoffs, and high interest rates hitting one after another this year, the economy has held up.

**Second, employment data is somewhat distorted.** In November, 64,000 non-farm jobs were added, seemingly exceeding expectations, but if you look closer? Healthcare is aggressively hiring, while transportation, warehousing, and leisure/hospitality are laying off workers. The unemployment rate soared to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. Good and bad news coexist, giving the Fed more reason to keep watching.

**Third, hawkish forces within the Fed still hold the upper hand.** The dovish voices are suppressed, and tightening remains the dominant decision-making mindset.

What does this mean for crypto investors? Don’t bet on the Fed pivoting quickly; the window for liquidity improvement may be much narrower than expected. Market expectations are adjusting, and your strategy should shift accordingly.