Recently, an interesting phenomenon has appeared in on-chain data—the MVRV indicator for short-term Bitcoin holders has been hovering in the loss zone for two consecutive months. In other words, those who bought in over the past 60 days are now mostly at a loss, marking the most difficult period since the beginning of this year. At the same time, BTC's price has been consistently below the 111-day moving average.

From a historical perspective, when short-term holders are in a prolonged state of loss, it usually indicates significant market pressure and could trigger panic selling. But from another angle, isn’t this also the market building a bottom? Once selling pressure subsides, a rebound could follow.

So the current situation is this: the most active retail group is undergoing a severe test. On one side is the risk of further decline, and on the other is the potential for recovery. The key is to watch when this indicator can return above 1—that will be an important signal for judging a shift in short-term sentiment. At that point, we might see whether the market continues to probe for lows or begins to reverse.