2025-12-27 19:24:21

$BTC Currently, there is an interesting phenomenon in the market worth paying attention to. The risk premium of the S&P 500 has fallen to -0.92%, which looks alarming, but based on historical data, this could actually be the best entry point.

Data supports this judgment: whenever the risk premium shows such negative values, the average return over the next 12 months reaches 17.9%. This is not speculation but a market pattern observed over the past decades. The start of the crazy bull market in the 1980s also began from similar extreme market sentiment.

From another perspective, a negative risk premium actually indicates mispricing in the market. Those who stay on the sidelines often miss the best timing window. $BTC $SOL $BNB The strategic logic for positioning in these mainstream assets at this stage is actually very clear—historical data tells us what to do.

BTC0,45%

SOL1,58%

BNB0,68%

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AirdropHunterZhang

· 6h ago

Using historical data to justify again? I believe it, but my wallet doesn't, haha. Last time I heard this kind of argument, I went all-in on SOL, and I'm still on the way to breaking even.

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OptionWhisperer

· 6h ago

Historical data sounds impressive, but when it comes to critical moments, isn't it all about intuition? --- Here we go again, every time they say history will repeat itself, but what’s the result... --- -0.92% is probably just to scare retail investors, institutions have already laid their traps --- 17.9% average increase? What about the worst times, why is that never mentioned --- Wait, this logic is the same as when we talked about bottom fishing last time... --- They're right, but how many dare to go all in? --- Off-chain observers are actually the ones who have survived the longest --- The data looks good, but I’m worried this might be an exception this time --- Entering BTC at this moment? I’m waiting to see what happens next --- Good point, but in times like these, everyone wants to buy the dip, no one wants to be the one caught off guard

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FromMinerToFarmer

· 6h ago

This statement sounds good, but is a risk premium of -0.92% the best entry point? That's a bit much, isn't it? How are those who said this last time doing now? I just want to ask, how was the 17.9% in the historical data calculated? Is it an average or a median? Don't tell me it's survivor bias again. It sounds nice, but it's actually just encouraging people to go all in. If only this wave really turns out to be the bottom, anyway I've already gone all in. Now it's just a matter of whether BTC can hold above 50,000. Here we go again with the story. In fact, no one can predict the market; relying on data to talk is just too misleading.

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CommunityJanitor

· 6h ago

The bottoming moment has arrived. Historical data is here, with an average increase of 17.9%. Isn't that attractive? Let's see who dares to go all-in.

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