I only brought $5,000 when I entered the market in 2019. Many people around me have been wiped out in contracts, and some even mortgaged their homes to cover losses. But my account has been steadily growing, with no maximum drawdown exceeding 8% in five years.
The secret is not so mysterious—I simply treat the market as a probability machine rather than trying to guess ups and downs or chase hot spots. Here are three methods I’ve been using:
**First Trick: Lock in Half of the Profit First to Provide Protection**
Whenever I open a position, I set stop-loss and take-profit orders first. When the floating profit reaches 10% of the principal, I immediately withdraw 50% of the profit to a cold wallet, and continue to roll over the remaining part with "the money provided by the market." If the trend continues favorably, I enjoy compound interest; if it turns weak, I at most give back some gains, keeping the principal always safe. Over five years, I’ve withdrawn 37 times, with the largest single withdrawal reaching $180,000. I was even flagged by the exchange for frequent large withdrawals and had to do a video verification.
**Second Trick: Three Time Cycles to Profit from Both Ends in Volatility**
Simultaneously monitor the daily, 4-hour, and 15-minute charts. The daily chart provides the overall direction, the 4-hour defines the fluctuation range, and the 15-minute is used for precise entries. For example, with BTC, I can open two positions: A is a long chase after a daily breakout with stop-loss below the previous low; B is a short position using limit orders in the overbought zone on the 4-hour chart. Both stop-losses are controlled within 1.5% of the principal, but take-profit is set at over 5 times.
Most of the time, the market is consolidating. While others get wiped out in volatility, I can make money on both sides—long and short. During the extreme market conditions like LUNA in 2022, with intraday swings over 90%, I was taking profits on both sides, and my account grew 42% in a single day.
**Third Trick: Treat Stop-Loss as an Entry Ticket, Use Small Risks to Capture Trend Opportunities**
I always see a 1.5% controlled loss as the cost of entry. When the market is favorable, I use trailing stops to let profits run; once it turns, I exit immediately. Over the long term, my win rate is only about 38%, but my risk-reward ratio can reach over 4.8:1, with a mathematical expectation of +1.9%. That means for every dollar risked, I can earn an average of $1.90. If I catch just two decent trends per year, my annual return far exceeds ordinary investments.
This approach sounds simple but is very counterintuitive to human nature. The key is to remember: the market’s biggest danger isn’t your misjudgment, but that you can’t recover after a margin call. As long as you survive long enough, probability will be on your side.
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0xOverleveraged
· 7h ago
Starting with 5000U, five years with an 8% drawdown, these numbers sound a bit suspicious
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Wait, frequent withdrawals being flagged for video verification? The exchange's method is just brilliant haha
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38% win rate and still making money? The risk-reward ratio is the real skill
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Basically, it's about surviving long enough without getting liquidated—that's hard mode
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180,000 orders withdrawn weekly—that psychological resilience is something I can't learn
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Can you profit from both long and short? Then you must have incredible self-discipline to avoid overtrading
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The key point remains: if you can't get back up, it's truly over
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37 withdrawals in five years, averaging seven or eight times a year—that pace is a bit hard for me to keep up
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1.5% risk for 5x reward, with a mathematical expectation of 1.9%—I understand the logic, but execution is really against human nature
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LUNA dropped 92%, yet it still gained +42% in a single day—that kind of market is the real test
View OriginalReply0
GasFeeTherapist
· 10h ago
38% win rate earns 1.9x returns, this mathematical expectation has me a bit confused, I need to do the math myself...
Is it true that there's only an 8% drawdown over five years? How strong must one's psychological resilience be.
To put it nicely, the key is to live long, but most people die in the first year.
Withdrawing weekly is a bit of a gamble, exchanges are all tightening risk controls haha.
Treating stop-loss as an entry ticket is indeed counterintuitive, most people simply can't do it.
There are too many people getting liquidated in contracts, this probability theory sounds right but the execution is really torturous.
$5000 steadily grows over five years, what does that say? Not being greedy is the biggest greed.
I think the key is still mindset, it's not some secret...
View OriginalReply0
BakedCatFanboy
· 10h ago
38% win rate can still make money; I need to carefully analyze this mathematical expectation.
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That's right, living is more important than anything; if you get liquidated, you really can't recover.
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Withdrawing funds 37 times in five years, I can't learn this level of self-discipline.
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Dual take-profit sounds simple, but in practice, it requires a lot of mental resilience.
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I can't believe I didn't think of withdrawing to a cold wallet; I always thought about continuing to roll over.
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A low win rate but still making big money; the key is executing take-profit and stop-loss properly.
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I want to ask, how did you handle that time when frequent withdrawals triggered risk control? Did you just cooperate with verification?
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Small retracements lead to big profits; this ratio is indeed excellent, but I admit, it requires extremely strong mental strength.
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The 42% increase in LUNA during that wave—what kind of heart do you need to dare to open both long and short positions?
View OriginalReply0
GoldDiggerDuck
· 10h ago
Buddy, a 38% win rate and still making money? I need to learn when to truly live long enough.
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Sounds good in theory, but who doesn't want to execute? The hardest part is the mindset.
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Five years and 37 withdrawals, you've even caused the exchange to trigger risk control haha.
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Is a profit-loss ratio of 4.8 real? I feel like my profit-loss ratio is actually the other way around.
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Looks simple but is actually a trap. I tried multiple cycle stacking, and after two reverse stop-losses, I just gave up.
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Cold wallet? I feel like you're just teaching self-discipline, which is the hardest thing for us retail investors.
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That wave of LUNA with dual take-profit increased by 42%. I just want to ask how you didn't get squeezed to death.
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Just live long enough. So, have I been living backwards these five years?
View OriginalReply0
ForkInTheRoad
· 10h ago
Damn, a 38% win rate can still be consistently profitable? I need to do the math on this ratio carefully.
I only brought $5,000 when I entered the market in 2019. Many people around me have been wiped out in contracts, and some even mortgaged their homes to cover losses. But my account has been steadily growing, with no maximum drawdown exceeding 8% in five years.
The secret is not so mysterious—I simply treat the market as a probability machine rather than trying to guess ups and downs or chase hot spots. Here are three methods I’ve been using:
**First Trick: Lock in Half of the Profit First to Provide Protection**
Whenever I open a position, I set stop-loss and take-profit orders first. When the floating profit reaches 10% of the principal, I immediately withdraw 50% of the profit to a cold wallet, and continue to roll over the remaining part with "the money provided by the market." If the trend continues favorably, I enjoy compound interest; if it turns weak, I at most give back some gains, keeping the principal always safe. Over five years, I’ve withdrawn 37 times, with the largest single withdrawal reaching $180,000. I was even flagged by the exchange for frequent large withdrawals and had to do a video verification.
**Second Trick: Three Time Cycles to Profit from Both Ends in Volatility**
Simultaneously monitor the daily, 4-hour, and 15-minute charts. The daily chart provides the overall direction, the 4-hour defines the fluctuation range, and the 15-minute is used for precise entries. For example, with BTC, I can open two positions: A is a long chase after a daily breakout with stop-loss below the previous low; B is a short position using limit orders in the overbought zone on the 4-hour chart. Both stop-losses are controlled within 1.5% of the principal, but take-profit is set at over 5 times.
Most of the time, the market is consolidating. While others get wiped out in volatility, I can make money on both sides—long and short. During the extreme market conditions like LUNA in 2022, with intraday swings over 90%, I was taking profits on both sides, and my account grew 42% in a single day.
**Third Trick: Treat Stop-Loss as an Entry Ticket, Use Small Risks to Capture Trend Opportunities**
I always see a 1.5% controlled loss as the cost of entry. When the market is favorable, I use trailing stops to let profits run; once it turns, I exit immediately. Over the long term, my win rate is only about 38%, but my risk-reward ratio can reach over 4.8:1, with a mathematical expectation of +1.9%. That means for every dollar risked, I can earn an average of $1.90. If I catch just two decent trends per year, my annual return far exceeds ordinary investments.
This approach sounds simple but is very counterintuitive to human nature. The key is to remember: the market’s biggest danger isn’t your misjudgment, but that you can’t recover after a margin call. As long as you survive long enough, probability will be on your side.