Recently, many people in the crypto circle have been overreacting. As soon as an economic news comes out, some shout bull market, others shout crash, fearing to miss every second of market fluctuations. But after years of navigating this space, I've seen too many such scenarios. Honestly, short-term ups and downs are mostly driven by emotions; the real opportunities to make money are in medium to long-term allocations.

So what's the key? Changes in the global macroeconomic environment and liquidity expectations. These are the core factors that determine the long-term direction of the crypto market.

Let me first explain the logical chain. The crypto market is essentially a mirror of macro liquidity and risk appetite. Think about it: if geopolitical risks decrease, market risk appetite naturally rises. If global supply chain tensions ease, inflation pressures will lessen. If inflation can be controlled, the Federal Reserve won't need to aggressively hike interest rates, and might even start cutting rates—this is a big positive for crypto assets. Because crypto is a typical high-risk, high-reward asset, once liquidity loosens, funds will flow in unstoppable. Conversely, if risks escalate and the Fed continues tightening, the long-term performance of the crypto market will be dragged down.

From this perspective, there are two lines worth paying attention to. The first is crypto assets related to the technology supply chain. If the trade environment truly eases and technical restrictions relax, industries like semiconductors and AI will have opportunities. The intersection of Web3, artificial intelligence, and the crypto world—this is where long-term opportunities are truly hidden. The second is the inverse reflection of liquidity expectations: the Fed's policy shifts will directly impact the pricing of risk assets.

So instead of obsessing over K-line charts every day, it's better to focus on understanding these big trends. Short-term fluctuations should be seen as noise; those who truly make money are positioning themselves for medium to long-term cycles.