Recently, I saw the latest statement from Moody's economists, and there has been a new change in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timetable. Inflation data still fluctuates around 3%, still some distance from the Fed's 2% target, which means significant rate cuts may not materialize until 2026. This adjustment in expectations directly rewrites the short-term logic of the crypto market's trend.

Why is a rate cut so critical for the crypto space? Honestly, the market's surge over the past two years largely benefited from abundant liquidity. Now that Moody's assessment is out, with no expectation of large-scale liquidity release in the short term, Bitcoin and other mainstream cryptocurrencies are likely to remain volatile, and the idea of relying on policy expectations for explosive growth can be temporarily set aside.

But that doesn't mean there's nothing to do. Volatility periods are always two-sided — risks and opportunities coexist. The key lies in strategy. Based on years of experience in the crypto market, I’ve summarized a set of prudent approaches for navigating volatile markets:

**First, resolutely avoid chasing highs and selling lows.** During this period of heightened market emotion, buying on small gains today and cutting losses on small dips tomorrow only ends up giving money to the market. A smarter approach is "better to miss out than to make mistakes," strictly controlling trading frequency and only considering positions at clear support levels.

**Second, stagger your entries instead of going all-in at once.** During uncertain volatile periods, dividing your plan into several time segments can reduce average costs and significantly lower the impact of a single mistake.

**Third, pay attention to on-chain data and institutional movements.** On-chain activity of Bitcoin, such as large address movements, often reflects the true market structure better than daily price charts. Although these data updates are slower, their accuracy is much higher.

Overall, in this stage where the Federal Reserve's policy has not yet clearly shifted, the crypto market is unlikely to see a one-sided trend. Instead of betting on a direction, it’s better to focus on risk control and cost management.