THE XRP ETF ANOMALY: 7 WEEKS OF STEADY INFLOWS FAIL TO BREAK A STUBBORN SIX-WEEK DOWNTREND

As 2025 draws to a close, XRP is exhibiting a striking divergence between institutional appetite and retail price action. Despite the asset being locked in a persistent six-week downtrend, XRP ETFs have recorded net inflows for seven consecutive weeks, attracting over $11 million on the day before Christmas alone. This “institutional backstop” is currently battling a wave of retail capitulation, as unrealized profits hit yearly lows and long-term holders face the growing temptation to lock in remaining gains before the new year. I. Institutional Conviction vs. Retail Fatigue The primary narrative for XRP in late December is the widening gap between the “smart money” entering via regulated funds and the selling pressure seen on spot exchanges: Unbroken Inflow Streak: Since their launch nearly two months ago, XRP ETFs have yet to record a single day of net outflows. This consistency even amidst broader market volatility signals that institutional investors view the current $1.80 range as a long-term accumulation zone.Profitability at a Trough: In contrast, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) data shows that retail profitability has plummeted to a yearly low. Most investors who entered above $1.86 are now holding underwater positions, creating a “supply overhang” that prevents rapid price recovery.Long-Term Holder Risk: There is growing concern that addresses holding XRP for more than a year may begin distributing their supply to preserve capital. If this group joins the short-term sellers, the institutional bid from ETFs may not be enough to prevent a deeper correction. II. Technical Barriers: The Six-Week Resistance XRP’s price action is currently “pinned” under a technical structure that has capped every recovery attempt since mid-November: The Downtrend Line: XRP is trading near $1.86, sitting just below a descending trendline that has dictated price movements for over six weeks. Repeated failures to close above this line have reinforced bearish sentiment among short-term traders.Critical Support ($1.85): The immediate floor for XRP is the $1.85 zone. If this level fails, the next structural support is found at $1.79, with a final breakdown target of $1.70 in a worst-case year-end scenario.The Breakout Target ($2.00): For the bearish thesis to be invalidated, XRP must first reclaim $1.94 and then flip the psychological $2.00 mark into support. III. Conclusion and 2026 Outlook The short-term outlook for XRP is one of “fragile stability” provided by institutional demand. While the seven-week ETF inflow streak is a powerful long-term signal, it has yet to translate into the upward momentum needed to break the six-week downtrend. As we head into early 2026, the market’s direction will depend on whether the “ETF backstop” can successfully absorb the selling pressure from retail and underwater long-term holders. If XRP can hold the $1.85 floor through the holiday lull, it may be well-positioned for a technical breakout once market participation returns in January. ⚠️ Important Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and institutional flow data. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.